Alavés and Atlético collide at Mendizorroza with history favoring the Rojiblancos

Mendizorroza hosts a clash between table neighbors with very different ambitions. Alavés and Atlético Madrid are separated by just 5 points in the LaLiga standings, but while the home side is fighting to settle into the upper half, Atlético can't afford to lose touch with Barcelona. The matchup also revives a recent head to head record that clearly favors the visitors.

Alavés sit sixth with a record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in 7 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 6. Over their last five outings they've picked up two wins, a draw and two losses, an uneven stretch that ended with a draw in their most recent match. At home, though, Quique Sánchez Flores' side looks like a different team: across 4 home matches this LaLiga season they're averaging 2.258 goals scored per game and just 0.753 conceded, with clean sheets in 50% of those games, and their most productive stretch comes between the 76th and 90th minutes. Lucas Boyé, with 4 goals, and Mariano Díaz, with 3, lead that attacking output on home turf.

Atlético Madrid, second in the table, boast a superior record in the competition: 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 7 matches, with 16 goals scored and 7 allowed. Over their last five games they've won three and lost two, and they arrive on a three game winning streak following a slower start. On the road, across 3 LaLiga matches this season, they're averaging 2.007 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, with clean sheets in 33% of those games; their best scoring window also falls between the 76th and 90th minutes. Álex Baena, with 4 goals, and Jonathan David, with 3, top that list on the road.

What the history shows

In the last 8 meetings between these two sides, Atlético have won 4, Alavés 2, with 2 draws, and a combined goal tally of 10 to 7 in favor of the Rojiblancos. Those numbers carry weight, though they guarantee nothing heading into this match.

Possible lineups

For Alavés, the projected starting eleven has Antonio Sivera in goal, a back line of Ville Koski, Abde Rebbach, Nahuel Tenaglia and Jonny Otto, a midfield of Pablo Ibáñez, Ángel Pérez and Antonio Blanco, and an attacking trio of Lucas Boyé alongside Mariano Díaz and Toni Martínez. This is a projection drawn from recent matches, not a confirmed lineup.

For Atlético, with moderate confidence given recent rotation, the projected lineup has Jan Oblak in goal, a back line of Alejandro Grimaldo, Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko and Cristian Romero, a midfield of Marcos Llorente, Álex Baena, Giuliano Simeone and Morten Hjulmand, and up front Lee Kang-In alongside Ademola Lookman.

What the numbers say

Our model shows a clear but not overwhelming edge for Atlético, with a draw still standing as a real possibility.

This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. Our model also puts a 75% probability on the match going over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring, in line with an Alavés side that scores and concedes at home and an Atlético team that rarely keeps a clean sheet on the road.

With Alavés needing points to stay within reach of the European spots and Atlético unable to afford a slip if they want to keep pace with the leaders, Mendizorroza is shaping up for a match where the scoreboard could move on both ends.