Alaves Beats Villarreal With Just 24% Possession, Makes Its Only Real Chance Count

With just 24.1% possession and only nine shots all game, Alaves walked away with all three points against Villarreal at Mendizorroza. The final score was 1-0, and it took just one clean strike from the home side to leave Villarreal's near total dominance without reward. The visitors had roughly 76% of the ball and fired off 19 shots without finding the net.

The match opened with Villarreal camped in the opposing half from the first minute. As early as the 4th minute, Santiago Mourino gave a warning with a shot that was blocked, and Gerard Moreno answered almost immediately with a close-range effort that flew well over the bar. The visitors kept up the pressure, with corners and chances from both flanks, but Alaves held its shape and waited for its moment. That moment came in the 30th minute: Lucas Boye struck a right-footed shot from the center of the box, set up by Angel Perez, to make it 1-0, a scoreline that would hold up until the final whistle.

Villarreal didn't let up. Before halftime, Juan Foyth and Gerard Moreno both tried their luck without success, and the first half ended with Alaves ahead on the scoreboard despite the clear gap in ball control. The second half followed much the same script: Villarreal kept pushing through Nicolas Pepe, very active down the left, and through substitutes Ayoze Perez and Alberto Moleiro, who came on to add fresh legs up front. There were real moments of danger, including a shot from Angel Perez that came off the post in the 68th minute, one from Juan Foyth off the woodwork in the 84th, and efforts from Nicolas Pepe that Antonio Sivera managed to keep out. None of it found the back of the net.

The match stats make clear how lopsided the play was, even if the result said otherwise:

The expected goals numbers from the match, an estimate based on shot location, back up that reading too: 0.89 for Alaves compared with 1.548 for Villarreal. In other words, the visitors created more cumulative danger, but the finishing touch belonged to the home side, which made its one big chance of the match count.

The result also flew in the face of the pre-match projections. Villarreal had been given a 41% chance of winning, against 32% for Alaves and 27% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.38 for the home side and 1.58 for the visitors. None of that played out: the team given less chance of winning, and with far less of the ball, was the one that took home all three points.

Where it leaves the table

The win puts Alaves at the top of the table with 7 points from 3 games played (2 wins and 1 draw, no losses), though it's worth remembering that only a handful of matchdays have been played so far this season. Villarreal, meanwhile, sits on 2 points after 3 games (0 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss), with a negative goal difference. The gap between the two sides in the standings stands at 5 points.

Numbers aside, the match left a clear picture: Villarreal had the ball, the shots and even hit the post twice, but not the goal. And in soccer, as Boye showed at Mendizorroza, sometimes all it takes is one well-taken chance.