Alavés Hosts Winless Málaga, Looks to Snap Its Own Slide

Alavés arrives having lost four of its last five matches, and Málaga still hasn't won a single game this LaLiga season. Rarely does a matchup between seventh and twentieth place carry so much urgency for both sides: Mendizorroza hosts a game this Sunday that looks like a turning point, especially for the visitors.

The Vitoria side has 11 points through nine matches, with a record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses (13 goals for, 10 against), numbers that keep it in seventh place. But the recent form is worrying: over its last five matches, Alavés has managed only a single draw, with four losses mixed in. Málaga, for its part, still hasn't tasted victory in the competition: 4 draws and 5 losses in 9 matches played, with just 6 goals scored against 18 conceded, a record that leaves it dead last in the table. Its recent form offers no relief either: two draws and three losses in its last five outings.

Some nuances are worth a closer look. Playing at home this LaLiga season, Alavés averages 1.998 goals scored and 1.008 conceded per match across a sample of 5 games, with a 40% clean sheet rate and a tendency to score between the 31st and 45th minutes. Lucas Boyé stands out as the team's top scorer in that sample with 5 goals, followed by Mariano Díaz with 3. Málaga, on the other hand, averages just 0.248 goals scored per match on the road in a sample of 4 games this season, against 2.003 conceded, with no clean sheets, and its most productive scoring window comes late (76th to 90th minute). These figures come from specific contexts rather than overall tournament numbers, but they paint two very different pictures home and away.

The head-to-head history doesn't suggest an upset is likely either: of the 6 matches played between the two sides, Alavés has won 4, there's been 1 draw, and Málaga has won just 1, with a combined 9 goals for the home side against 4 for the visitors.

Projected Lineups

With medium reliability, Alavés' projected starting eleven features familiar names under manager Quique Sánchez Flores: Antonio Sivera in goal, a back line with Nahuel Tenaglia, Abde Rebbach, Jonny Otto and Ville Koski, with Nicolás Valentini also among the candidates for a starting spot. In midfield, Pablo Ibáñez, Antonio Blanco and Ángel Pérez are expected to feature, with Lucas Boyé as the fixed striker and Toni Martínez competing for a spot up top.

Málaga, with Funes on the bench, would field Alfonso Herrero in goal, a back line of Ángel Recio, Rafita and José Salinas, and a crowded midfield featuring David Larrubia, Pablo Martínez, Carlos Dotor, Dani Lorenzo, Izan Merino and Joaquín Muñoz, with Chupe leading the attack.

What the Numbers Say

Our in-house model gives Alavés a clear, though not overwhelming, edge: a 57% chance of victory compared to Málaga's 17%, with 26% set aside for a draw. Expected goals also favor the home side: 1.8 for Alavés against 0.9 for Málaga, for an estimated total of 2.7. These figures come from our own model, not betting odds, and should be read as a trend rather than a certainty. The probability of the match going over 2.5 goals sits at 43%, while the chances of both teams scoring drop to 20%.

With a 7-point gap separating the two sides in the standings and the weight of urgency bearing down on Málaga, Mendizorroza could become the stage where Alavés manages to halt its slide, or where the league's bottom side finally finds its first win of the campaign.