Alavés Looks to Build on Strong Start Against Winless Valencia

Alavés arrives in third place, nine points clear of its upcoming opponent, and Mendizorroza sets up as the perfect stage to confirm a strong start to the season. On the other side, Valencia lands in the Basque Country as the league's cellar dweller, with just 1 point from 5 matches played in LaLiga. Rarely does the table show such a clear gap before kickoff.

Alavés has posted 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in its first 5 matches of the campaign, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 5. Over its last five matches overall, the run reads three wins, one draw and one loss, a small sample but one that backs up the team's solid form. What's more, at home in LaLiga this season (across a sample of 3 matches), Alavés is averaging 3 goals scored per game and just 0.667 conceded, with clean sheets in 67% of those matches and a tendency to find the net between the 76th and 90th minutes. Lucas Boyé stands out as the top scorer in that home sample, with 4 goals.

Valencia's picture looks entirely different. In its league record so far, the club has managed 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, scoring only 1 goal while conceding 10, the worst goal difference in the entire standings. Recent form offers little comfort either: one draw and four losses in the last five matches. Looking at the 2026 LaLiga sample (both home and away, across 5 matches), Valencia is averaging just 0.2 goals scored per game and conceding 2, with clean sheets in only 20% of matches. Umar Sadiq is the only player to have scored in that sample, with 1 goal.

An Even Head-to-Head That Doesn't Match the Current Moment

The two sides have met 8 times, with 4 wins for Alavés, 2 draws and 2 wins for Valencia, and an identical goal tally: 9 apiece. It's a balanced history, but one that arrives in a very different context from today, with both clubs sitting in completely opposite spots in the standings.

Probable Lineups

Alavés, according to its probable lineup (high reliability), would keep much of the core that has started in recent matches: Antonio Sivera in goal, a back line of Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia and Jonny Otto, a midfield featuring Ángel Pérez, Abde Rebbach, Pablo Ibáñez and Antonio Blanco, and Lucas Boyé alongside Toni Martínez up front.

Valencia, with a probable lineup rated medium reliability, would line up with Stole Dimitrievski in goal, a defensive line of Pepelu, César Tárrega, Jesús Vázquez, Arnau Martínez and Mouctar Diakhaby, a midfield of Filip Ugrinic, Ryunosuke Sato and Guido Rodríguez, and Javi Guerra paired with Arnaut Danjuma in attack.

What the Model Says

Our model, built on the season's trends, gives Alavés a 48% chance of winning, with 29% for a draw and 23% for Valencia. It's not an overwhelming edge, but it's a clear advantage for the home side.

This is our own estimate, not a betting line, but it lines up with the sense that this matchup could produce goals: our model puts the probability of going over 2.5 goals at 53%, though only 20% for both teams to score. With those numbers on the table, Alavés has a clear chance to stay in the hunt near the top, while Valencia needs to turn around a run that, so far, hasn't produced a single win all season.