Aldosivi hosts Atlético Tucumán at the Minella, desperate for a way out of the basement

Aldosivi comes into this matchup at the José María Minella sitting at the bottom of Group B, with just 5 points from 9 games. Across the field will be Atlético Tucumán, who aren't exactly title contenders but do have eight more points and a far steadier campaign. The gap in the standings is real, but Argentine soccer has a habit of making life difficult for the favorites, so it's worth taking a closer look at the numbers before assuming anything.

Javier Sanguinetti's side simply can't find its footing: in the tournament they've managed just 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses, scoring 11 goals and conceding 16. Their last five matches were even worse, with four defeats and only one win in between. As the home side in Argentina's Primera División this season (across an 8-game sample), Aldosivi is averaging 0.38 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per match, with clean sheets in 50% of those games and its most frequent scoring window coming in the first 15 minutes. Federico Gino stands out as their most regular scorer in that sample, with 2 goals.

Atlético Tucumán, under Julio César Falcioni, has a tidier record: 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the tournament, with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded, one of the sturdiest defenses in the group. Over their last five matches they picked up three draws, one win and one loss, a stretch defined more by tight results than by dominance. On the road in the same competition and season (also over 8 games), they're averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.76 conceded, with clean sheets in just 13% of matches and their best scoring window between minutes 31 and 45. Leandro Díaz leads that away sample with 5 goals.

The head-to-head record is even: in 8 previous meetings there have been 1 win for Aldosivi, 4 draws and 3 for Atlético Tucumán, with 7 goals scored by each side.

Likely lineups

With medium reliability, Aldosivi could field Lucas Acosta in goal, a back three or four with Joaquín Pombo, Néstor Breitenbruch, Elías López and Mateo Vales, a midfield of Lucas Castro, Nicolás Gaitán, Felipe Anso, Martín García and Bautista Dadín, and Andrés Vombergar leading the attack. On the other side, with high reliability, Atlético Tucumán projects to line up with Luis Ingolotti between the posts, a back line of Leonel Di Plácido, Luciano Vallejo, Clever Ferreira and Ignacio Galván, a midfield with Leonel Vega, Lautaro Godoy, Renzo Tesuri, Nicolás Laméndola and Franco Nicola, and Leandro Díaz up front.

What the numbers say

Our model sees a match closer than the standings suggest:

These figures come from our own estimate, not a betting line, and they confirm there's no clear favorite: the 38% given to the visitors is barely above the draw, at 32%, and the home win, at 30%. Our model also puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams scoring at 33%, numbers that point to a match with plenty of uncertainty.

With Aldosivi desperate for points and Atlético Tucumán looking to hold onto its spot in the upper middle of the table, the Minella promises a tight contest, the kind decided more by small details than by anything the standings might suggest.