Almada's stoppage-time strike gives River Plate win over 10-man Atletico Tucuman

Playing with 10 men from the 12th minute on, Atletico Tucuman held its ground against River Plate until the final seconds, but a Thiago Almada goal deep into stoppage time gave the visitors a 2-1 win at the Monumental Presidente Jose Fierro, in Argentina's Primera Division.

The match turned early for the home side: in the 12th minute, Franco Nicola was sent off for a foul on Lucas Martinez Quarta, leaving Atletico Tucuman a man down for nearly the entire game. River Plate wasted little time making the extra man count. In the 21st minute, Tobias Andrada finished with his right foot from the center of the box, assisted by Gonzalo Montiel, to make it 1-0.

With the extra man, River controlled the ball at will and created chances through Thiago Almada, Angel Correa and Sebastian Driussi, though Atletico Tucuman's goal held firm for much of the second half. The Tucuman side, sitting deep but well organized, found the equalizer on a set piece: in the 82nd minute, off a Lautaro Godoy cross that came from a free kick, Clever Ferreira rose to head the ball home from the center of the box, making it 1-1 and putting the home crowd back in the game.

The tie did not last long. Deep into stoppage time, with five extra minutes signaled by the fourth official, Thiago Almada finished with his right foot from the center of the box off an assist from Lucas Beltran to seal the final 1-2 and hand River Plate all three points.

The numbers behind the dominance

The stats back up what the scoreline and the red card suggest: River Plate controlled possession throughout the match and multiplied Atletico Tucuman's chances created.

Based on our post-match xG estimate calculated from the shots taken in the game, River Plate generated 1.607 expected goals against Atletico Tucuman's 0.73, a gap that reflects the visitors' territorial dominance, even though the home side made the most of its one clear chance to level the score temporarily.

Beforehand, we had projected a closer match than the final score suggests: we gave River Plate a 45% chance of winning, 31% to a draw and 24% to Atletico Tucuman, with total expected goals of 2.32. The outcome, a visitor's win in the closing seconds, ended up matching the scenario we saw as most likely, though the path there, an early red card and a temporary equalizer, was not part of that forecast.

What the result means in the standings

In Group B, River Plate came into this match with 13 points from 9 games played (4 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), while Atletico Tucuman also had 13 points from 9 games, with 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses. The gap between the two sides was zero points heading into this matchup, underscoring just how tight the fight is in the middle of the table, led by Argentinos Juniors with 17 points.

For Atletico Tucuman, the result leaves the feeling of a comeback that fell just short despite playing more than 75 minutes with a man down. For River Plate, on the other hand, the win came at just the right moment, with a stoppage-time goal that erased the sting of the temporary equalizer and confirmed the dominance it had built throughout the match.