Argentina hosts Benin at the Monumental as overwhelming 90% favorite

Eleven goals scored and none conceded in this year's friendlies so far. That's the calling card Argentina brings into its home date with Benin at Estadio Monumental, part of the slate of International Friendlies. You don't need to dig much deeper to understand why this matchup looks so lopsided on paper.

The Albiceleste arrive with a perfect record: two games played, two wins, zero goals allowed. Over their last five outings they've racked up four wins against a single loss in between. In their two most recent friendlies (the 2026 sample, both home and away), they've averaged 5.5 goals scored per match and haven't conceded once, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of those games. That same sample shows a tendency to strike early, within the first 15 minutes, with Lautaro Martinez, Nico Paz and Jose Manuel Lopez all sharing in the goals during that opening stretch this year.

Benin's story looks very different. Over their last five matches they've managed two wins, a draw and two losses, an uneven run that stands in sharp contrast to Argentina's form. Their trend sample is minimal, though: just one match in 2024, in which they failed to score and conceded a goal, with no clean sheet. It's a thin reference point rather than a reliable guide to what might happen today, but it does highlight an obvious gap in context with their opponent.

Projected lineups

Argentina's estimated XI, with medium confidence based on recent lineups, would keep the usual core intact: Emiliano Martinez in goal, the central defensive pairing of Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez, and a midfield built around Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez, both regular starters in nearly every recent match. Up top, Julian Alvarez and Lionel Messi would likely lead the attack, though Messi has only started four of the last six matches, so his presence from the opening whistle isn't guaranteed.

On Benin's side, Gernot Rohr could again turn to Marcel Dandjinou between the posts and to Yohan Roche and Tamimou Ouorou in defense, two of the most consistent names over the last six matches. Up front, Aiyegun Tosin stands out as the forward with the most continuity in the recent sample.

What the numbers say

Our in-house model, built from this season's trends, gives Argentina a clear edge:

There's not much nuance to tease out here: the 90% figure for the Albiceleste leaves only a sliver of room for an upset. The expected goals from our model point the same way, with 3.23 for Argentina against 0.38 for Benin, a gap worth remembering is our own projection rather than a sportsbook line.

With those numbers on the table, this game at the Monumental looks less like an even contest and more like a showcase. The question doesn't seem to be whether Argentina wins, but by how much and who ends up on the scoresheet.