Arsenal heads into the Stadium of Light as heavy favorite against a Sunderland side that has never beaten the Gunners

Arsenal arrives at the Stadium of Light with a perfect points record and just one goal conceded in the Premier League, while Sunderland tries to steady an uneven start that has them sitting in mid-table. You don't need to look much further to understand why the visitors come in as heavy favorites, though the match always has its own story to tell.

Sunderland has put together a record of one win, one draw and one loss in their three Premier League matches, with 3 goals scored and 3 conceded, and they sit 12th in the table. Over their last five games (a different sample that mixes competitions), they went through two straight losses before bouncing back with a win, a draw and another win. Arsenal, on the other hand, has a perfect three wins from three, with 6 goals scored and only 1 conceded, and sits second in the table, just a point off the top. Their recent form is even more emphatic: five wins in their last five matches.

It's worth clarifying that those goal averages floating around (Sunderland scoring and conceding 1 per game, Arsenal with 2 scored and 0.33 conceded) come from a separate sample of three 2026 Premier League matches as home and away sides, and shouldn't be confused with the overall league record just outlined. In that same sample, Arsenal has kept a clean sheet 67% of the time and tends to do damage between the 46th and 60th minutes, while Sunderland spreads its goals around the closing stretch of the first half. Among the names that show up in that sample are Enzo Le Fée, Nilson Angulo and Wilson Isidor for the home side, and Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard for Arsenal, each with a goal or two depending on the case.

The head-to-head record doesn't offer much hope for the home fans either: across 8 meetings Sunderland has never won, with 2 draws and 6 wins for Arsenal, and a lopsided goal difference in that history: 6 goals for Sunderland against 22 for Arsenal.

The probable lineups

For Sunderland, the projected lineup (low reliability, based on our own reading of recent matches) points to Robin Roefs in goal, a back line with Trai Hume, Reinildo Mandava, Luke O'Nien, Nordi Mukiele and Dan Ballard, a midfield of Enzo Le Fée, Noah Sadiki, Nilson Angulo and Granit Xhaka, and Brian Brobbey leading the line. Arsenal, with the same level of uncertainty, could go with David Raya in goal, Gabriel Magalhães, Ben White, Riccardo Calafiori and Cristhian Mosquera at the back, Martin Ødegaard, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka and Christos Tzolis in midfield, and Kai Havertz up top.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives Arsenal a clear edge, though not an overwhelming one. Here's how the numbers break down:

Arsenal's 59% leaves real room for a draw, which sits at 28%, while a Sunderland win comes in as the least likely outcome at 13%. Our expected goals figures point the same way: 0.57 for Sunderland against 1.53 for Arsenal, an estimated total of 2.10 goals in the match. Worth repeating: this is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a firm prediction. Additional trends point to a 50% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 100% chance of both teams scoring.

With Arsenal boasting the best start in the Premier League and Sunderland looking to break a history that has never smiled on them against this opponent, the Stadium of Light has plenty of reasons to keep everyone watching.