Arsenal hosts unbeaten Leeds with a perfect record at the Emirates

Arsenal host Leeds United at the Emirates Stadium carrying a stat that looms large: in the eight previous meetings between the two sides, the home team won all eight, with a combined 26 goals scored to just 5 conceded. The Premier League puts second place against fifth on the table, and that alone gives the afternoon a different feel.

Mikel Arteta's side arrive with four wins and a single defeat from their five league matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 4, figures that have them sitting second with 12 points, three behind leaders Manchester City. Over their last five matches they have four wins and one loss, the most recent outing. In this season's Premier League, home and away combined, Arsenal are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in 60% of those matches, with their most productive scoring window falling between the 46th and 60th minutes. Bukayo Saka is their top scorer in that sample with three goals, followed by Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard with two apiece.

Leeds United, for their part, remain unbeaten in the competition: two wins and three draws from five matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding 3, leaving them fifth with 9 points, just three behind Arsenal. Over their last five games the run reads three draws, one loss and one win. In that same Premier League sample this season, home and away combined, Leeds are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, with a 40% clean sheet rate and their best scoring stretch between the 31st and 45th minutes. Dominic Calvert-Lewin leads their scoring charts in that sample with three goals.

Probable lineups

Arteta could stick with much of his usual lineup: David Raya in goal, with Gabriel Magalhaes, Riccardo Calafiori, Ezri Konsa and Ben White across the back line, Declan Rice in midfield alongside Saka, Odegaard and Christos Tzolis, and Kai Havertz leading the line. This is an estimated lineup, drawn from recent matches and not an official confirmation.

Daniel Farke could go with James Trafford in goal, a back line of Tarik Muharemovic, James Justin and Nico Elvedi, Ethan Ampadu and Ao Tanaka through the middle, Jayden Bogle and Gabriel Gudmundsson out wide, and an attack of Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Anton Stach. This too is a low confidence projection rather than a confirmed starting eleven.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to Arsenal, though it does not rule out Leeds entirely:

This is our own estimate, not a betting line. The 60% favoritism for the home side lines up with the head to head history and the league table, but it still leaves a 26% chance of a draw, hardly negligible for a Leeds side that has yet to lose this season. Expected goals also point to a gap: 1.75 for Arsenal versus 0.75 for Leeds, a total of 2.5 that lines up with a 40% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 64% chance both teams find the net.

With Arsenal chasing Manchester City closely and an unbeaten Leeds side in need of a win, the Emirates Stadium has plenty of ingredients for a match that could shake up the top of the Premier League.