Atlante and Pumas UNAM Battle to Climb Out of the Basement in a Tight Banorte Clash

With just two points separating them in the standings, Atlante and Pumas UNAM meet at Estadio Banorte in a matchup of teams that have yet to find their footing in Liga MX. The hosts sit dead last at 16th with 11 points, while the visitors are only three spots and two points better off, in 12th. Neither side has any room to relax.

Atlante has put together a record of 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in 11 matches, with 12 goals scored and 17 allowed. Draws have become the team's trademark: five of them this tournament paint the picture of a side that can't quite close out games. Over its last five outings, Atlante managed just one win, two draws and two losses, an uneven run that goes a long way toward explaining its position in the table. At home this Liga MX season, the club has averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.408 allowed per game, with clean sheets in just 20 percent of matches, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 61st and 75th minutes.

Pumas UNAM isn't exactly riding high either, with a record of 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, 17 goals scored and 19 allowed, a negative goal difference that keeps the club in the lower half of the table. Over its last five matches, Pumas won once, drew twice and lost twice, a run of form similar to its upcoming opponent's. As a visitor this Liga MX campaign, the team averages 1.606 goals scored and the same number allowed, without a single clean sheet in that span, and tends to strike early: its most productive attacking window comes between the 16th and 30th minutes. Juninho stands out as the club's top scorer in that sample with 6 goals, followed by Robert Morales with 3.

The head to head history doesn't favor Atlante either: of the 7 matches played between the two clubs, Pumas has won 5, Atlante 2, with no draws, and an aggregate score of 13 to 7 in favor of the university side.

Probable Lineups

For Atlante, the core group that Miguel Herrera has leaned on in recent matches looks set to return: Oscar Jimenez in goal, with Eduardo Tercero, Walter Portales and Aaron Quiros holding down the back line, joined by Martin Sarrafiore, Eugenio Pizzuto and Luis Calzadilla in midfield, plus Jhojan Julio up top. This is an estimated lineup, not a confirmed one, with medium reliability based on recent data.

For Pumas UNAM, Esteban Solari would once again turn to Keylor Navas between the posts, with Nathan Silva and Rodrigo Lopez as regulars on defense, Uriel Antuna in midfield, and an attacking trio featuring Juninho, Robert Morales and Luciano Herrera. This too is a probable lineup, inferred from previous matches.

What the Numbers Say

The breakdown is far from a lopsided call: a draw and an Atlante win are nearly even at 29 percent each, while Pumas UNAM emerges as a slight favorite at 42 percent. Our model also projects expected goals of 1.21 for Atlante and 1.49 for Pumas, a combined total of 2.70, in line with a 50 percent chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 36 percent chance both teams find the net. Worth noting, this is our own model's estimate, not a betting line.

With both sides needing points to pull away from the relegation zone, the match at the Banorte figures to be tight on paper, with the expected goals pointing to a low scoring game that still produces goals from both ends.