Atlas storms back with two stoppage-time goals to stun Tijuana 3-2

There were barely four minutes left on the clock when Luís Esteves converted from the penalty spot to make it 2-2, and the Estadio Caliente hadn't even finished processing that when, deep into stoppage time, Florián Monzón curled a left-footed strike from outside the box for the final 2-3. Club Tijuana had the match under control for nearly an hour and watched it slip away in the closing minutes against Atlas, in a Liga MX clash that was decided in the final half hour.

The match had started with the script flipped: Atlas went ahead early through a Ryan Mmaee goal in the 14th minute, assisted by Kevin Zenón. But Tijuana answered quickly. Just four minutes later, a penalty was awarded for a Mmaee foul on Mourad El Ghezouani, and the Moroccan himself converted it in the 21st minute to level the score. Before the half hour mark, in the 36th minute, Ignacio Rivero rose to head home a corner kick delivered by Adonis Preciado to make it 2-1, the score at which Tijuana closed out the first half and carried comfortably well into the second.

Everything changed in the final stretch. In the 83rd minute, VAR reviewed a handball by Frank Boya inside the box and awarded a penalty to Atlas. Esteves made no mistake in the 86th minute to draw it level at 2-2, and just when a draw seemed like the most likely way to close out the night, Monzón stepped up with a shot from distance that flew into the top corner to complete the visitors' comeback in added time.

A dominant display that didn't show on the scoreboard until the end

The numbers tell a different story from the scoreline for much of the match. Atlas controlled 70.4% of possession to Tijuana's 29.6%, and fired off 21 shots to the home side's 10, with 7 shots on target compared to 5. The gap in passing was even more pronounced: 597 for Atlas against 243 for Tijuana.

The xG generated in the match, an in-house estimate calculated from shot data, was also close despite the final result: 2.742 for Tijuana against 2.158 for Atlas. In other words, the home side actually created slightly more danger over the course of the game, but couldn't cash in when it mattered most.

What the preview said

Before kickoff, our projection gave Tijuana a 50% chance of winning, against 23% for Atlas and 27% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.70 for the home side and 1.09 for the visitors. The result ended up completely contradicting that forecast: the underdog walked away with all three points, and a five-goal thriller blew past the projected total of 2.79.

What it means in the standings

In the Liga MX table, Atlas came into this match in fourth place with 17 points from 10 games played (5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), while Tijuana sat in eighth with 14 points from 9 games (4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), a gap of 3 points between the two sides heading into the match. Atlas's comeback, built on ball control and sealed with two late blows, leaves Tijuana with the feeling of having had the match under control for more than an hour without being able to see it through to the finish.