Atlético de Madrid Host Osasuna as Heavy Favorites at the Metropolitano

The Riyadh Air Metropolitano welcomes an Osasuna side arriving at just about the worst possible time to visit an Atlético team eager to get back to its ruthless best. With only three points separating the two clubs in the table, there's more intrigue here than meets the eye, even if the favorite is clear.

Atlético de Madrid sit fifth with 10 points, the product of three wins, a draw and a loss so far in LaLiga, scoring 10 goals and conceding 6. Their last five outings have cooled off somewhat: two wins, a draw and two losses, including a rough patch of back-to-back defeats before closing out with a win. Osasuna, meanwhile, sit eleventh with 7 points from two wins, a draw and two losses, with a negative goal difference of 5 scored against 8 conceded. Their recent form has also been a mixed bag: a draw, two wins, then two straight losses in their last five matches.

It's worth looking at each side's season-long trends, even though they can't be lumped in with head-to-head history. Over their last five matches home and away in LaLiga, Atlético average 2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 40% of those matches and their most productive scoring window falling between the 76th and 90th minutes. Álex Baena stands out as their top scorer in that sample with 3 goals, followed by Giuliano Simeone with 2 and Lee Kang-In with 1. Osasuna, over the same five-match window, average 1 goal scored and 1.6 conceded, also with clean sheets 40% of the time, though their best scoring stretch comes between the 46th and 60th minutes. Ante Budimir is by far their top threat in that span with 4 goals.

A History That Clearly Favors Atlético

The head-to-head record doesn't do Osasuna any favors either: of the 8 matches played between these two, Atlético won 6, Osasuna won 2 and there were no draws, with Atlético outscoring Osasuna 11 goals to 7 over that span.

Possible Lineups

Atlético's likely lineup, rated medium reliability based on recent selections, would have Jan Oblak in goal, a back line featuring Dávid Hancko and Marc Pubill, and a midfield of Giuliano Simeone, Alejandro Grimaldo, Marcos Llorente, Morten Hjulmand and Pablo Barrios, with Lee Kang-In, Ademola Lookman and Álex Baena rounding out the attack. On Osasuna's side, with an estimated low reliability, the probable eleven has Sergio Herrera in goal, a back line of Alejandro Catena, Iñigo Arguibide, Abel Bretones and Jorge Herrando, a crowded midfield with Jon Moncayola, Rubén García, Iker Muñoz, Raúl García and Moi Gómez, and Ante Budimir leading the line up front.

Our model gives a clear edge to the home side, though it doesn't entirely rule out a visiting upset.

This is our own estimate based on season-long trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. With a 65% probability for the home side, Atlético enter as heavy favorites, though the 21% chance of a draw and 14% for Osasuna make clear nothing is settled in advance. Our model also puts the probability of the match going over 2.5 goals at 60%, and the chance of both teams scoring at 48%.

With those numbers on the table, Atlético are obligated to capitalize on home advantage and their recent history against Osasuna in LaLiga, while the Navarrese side needs to stop the defensive bleeding if they hope to take anything away from the Metropolitano.