Atlético San Luis and Necaxa Meet at the Bottom of the Table Looking for Relief

With just six points from eight games, Atlético San Luis heads into this Liga MX matchup sitting dead last in the overall standings, in 16th place, and needs something urgent to stop the slide. Standing across from them will be Necaxa, who aren't doing much better either: 13 points off the top and a recent run that's weighing them down. The game will be played at Estadio Libertad Financiera and has all the makings of a direct final for escaping the bottom of the table.

The home side, coached by Diego Mejía, have a record so far this tournament of 1 win, 3 draws and 4 losses in 8 games, with 8 goals scored and 15 allowed: the worst goal difference among the teams on the field today. Over their last five games they've managed just one win, one draw and three losses, with defeats in their two most recent outings. Playing at home in the 2026 Liga MX, and based on a sample of 4 games, they average 0.76 goals scored and 1.76 allowed per match, with a 25% clean sheet rate; there, Rafa Llorente stands out as the most frequent name on the offensive whiteboard, with David Rodríguez close behind.

Martín Varini's Necaxa arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the tournament, 9 goals scored and 13 allowed, sitting in 13th place, which doesn't exactly inspire optimism either. Their recent form is even more worrying: over the last five games they haven't won a single one, with two draws and three losses, the latest of which came right before this trip to San Luis. As visitors in the 2026 Liga MX, based on a sample of 3 games, they average 1.013 goals scored and 1.653 allowed, without a single clean sheet, and they tend to strike early: their most frequent scoring window is between minute 0 and 15. Julián Carranza is, by far, their top scoring threat in that sample.

The head-to-head record clearly favors Necaxa: of 8 matches played, Atlético San Luis won 2, there was 1 draw and Necaxa took 5, with a combined tally of 14 goals for the home side against 19 for the visitors.

How They Might Line Up

Atlético San Luis's probable lineup, estimated from their recent matches, would have Andrés Sánchez in goal, a back line with Eduardo Águila, Miguel García and Benjamín Galindo, a midfield of Anderson Duarte, Sébastien Salles-Lamonge, Óscar Macías, Román Torres and Johan Caicedo, and David Rodríguez and Rafa Llorente up top as a pair.

On Necaxa's side, the probable lineup would place Luis Jiménez between the posts, with Kaiky Naves, Agustín Oliveros and Alexis Peña in defense, a midfield of Lorenzo Faravelli, Owen González, Danny Leyva and Mauro Zaleta, and an attacking trio of Matías Espíndola, Julián Carranza and Javier Ruiz.

Our model, based on this season's trends, produces a tight forecast, with a slight edge for the home team:

The 43% for the home side against Necaxa's 31% doesn't point to a huge gap: it's a moderate edge, consistent with home-field advantage, but far from a game decided in advance. Our model's expected goals are 1.75 for Atlético San Luis and 1.47 for Necaxa, a total of 3.22 that points toward a game with scoring chances at both ends: in fact, the probability of both teams scoring is estimated at 50%, while the probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 42%. Worth repeating: these are our own estimates, not sportsbook odds.

Two teams under pressure, defenses that concede easily, and a head-to-head record that favors Necaxa: there are enough ingredients for an uncomfortable game at Estadio Libertad Financiera.