Austin FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: an even matchup at Q2 Stadium despite the gap in the standings

Q2 Stadium hosts a matchup that carries more urgency for one side than the other, at least on paper. Austin FC sits 14th in the MLS Western Conference, while the San Jose Earthquakes are fourth, ten points clear according to the standings. But if recent form says anything, that gap in the table hasn't been showing up on the field lately.

Austin comes in with a record of 6 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in 22 games played, with 28 goals scored and 41 allowed, a negative goal difference that's weighing on the club. Over their last five matches they've picked up two wins, a draw and two losses, a mixed run that hasn't settled into any clear trend. At home this MLS season, though, Austin averages 1.408 goals scored and 0.99 allowed per game, with a 40% clean sheet rate, and tends to find the net most often between the 76th and 90th minutes. Myrto Uzuni (6 goals), Christian Ramirez (5) and Facundo Torres (3) are the top contributors in that home sample.

San Jose, meanwhile, has a record of 10 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in 22 games, with 39 goals scored and 33 allowed, numbers that explain their fourth place standing. The issue is form: over the last five matches they've suffered four losses and a draw, without a single win. On the road this 2026 MLS season, they average 1.82 goals scored and 1.28 allowed per game, with just a 27% clean sheet rate, and tend to score mostly between the 46th and 60th minutes. Preston Judd, with 11 goals in that sample, is the top offensive threat, followed by Timo Werner (6) and Ousseni Bouda (5).

The head to head series between the two sides is tight: in 8 meetings, Austin has 2 wins, there have been 4 draws, and San Jose has 2 wins, with the home side scoring 15 goals and the away side 17 across those matches.

Probable lineups

With the low reliability that comes with any projection, Austin FC could take the field with Brad Stuver in goal, a back line with Guilherme Biro and Oleksandr Svatok, a midfield of Jon Gallagher, Joseph Rosales, Ervin Torres, Besard Sabovic and Ilie Sánchez, and up top Myrto Uzuni, Brandon Vázquez and Facundo Torres. On the San Jose Earthquakes side, the probable eleven has Angus Gunn between the posts, Reid Roberts, Daniel Munie and Benji Kikanovic across the back, Beau Leroux, Jamar Ricketts, Timo Werner and Ronaldo Vieira in midfield, and an attacking trio of Ousseni Bouda, Niko Tsakiris and Preston Judd.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model doesn't see a clear favorite. It gives Austin FC a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26%, and the San Jose Earthquakes 35%, a tight split that reflects just how even this matchup is despite the gap in the standings.

Those figures are our own estimate drawn from this season's trends, not a definitive prediction or a betting line. On top of that, our model calculates a 52% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance both teams score, in line with a game that promises end to end action rather than a defensive lockdown.

With Austin looking to turn around a season hurt by its goal difference and San Jose trying to snap a slide that's pushing it away from the top spots, Q2 Stadium could deliver a more open match than the standings suggest.