Bayern Munich vs. Stuttgart: a high-scoring clash with a clear home favorite

Bayern is averaging 4 goals per game this season. Stuttgart comes in scoring 2.42 on average, but also conceding nearly 2 per match. With those numbers on the table, the Bundesliga brings a matchup to the Allianz Arena that looks anything but tight, even if the home side's favoritism is obvious before the ball even rolls.

Bayern arrives having taken a recent loss, but with four straight wins since that stumble across its last five matches. The offensive output backs up that run: beyond the 4-goal average per game, the team tends to do most of its damage between the 31st and 45th minutes. Harry Kane tops the scoring chart with 36 goals, followed by Luis Diaz and Michael Olise, both with 15. Defensive solidity, though, isn't the squad's strong suit: it's kept a clean sheet in just 29% of its matches, a gap that could give Stuttgart an opening.

Stuttgart, for its part, comes in with a more uneven recent run: two wins, two draws and a loss in its last five outings. Its strength shows up late: the side scores most often between the 76th and 90th minutes, right when games are decided. Deniz Undav leads the scoring with 19 goals, backed by Ermedin Demirovic (12) and Chris Fuhrich (7). A clean sheet has come in just 18% of its matches, a number that, combined with Bayern's, explains why the model expects goals from both sides.

A one-sided history

The head-to-head record between the two sides is so lopsided it barely needs explaining: in 8 meetings, Bayern has won all 8, with a commanding 28-to-5 aggregate goal difference. There are no draws or away wins in that sample, reinforcing the notion that Stuttgart will need something special to buck the trend.

Probable lineups

With low reliability based on available data, Bayern could field Jonas Urbig in goal, with a back line rotating among Konrad Laimer, Jonathan Tah, Kim Min-Jae, Dayot Upamecano, Hiroki Ito and Sacha Boey, plus a midfield of Tim Binder, Aleksandar Pavlovic and Tom Bischof, with Arijon Ibrahimovic as the attacking reference. Stuttgart, with medium reliability, features a near-fixed lineup: Alexander Nubel in goal, Maximilian Mittelstadt and Jeff Chabot at the back, and in midfield Deniz Undav and Angelo Stiller have started in the last 6 matches, joined by Chris Fuhrich and Jamie Leweling.

What the numbers say

EnPelotas's model calculates the following probabilities for this match, which should not be taken as betting odds or a definitive prediction:

Bayern's favoritism is clear and decisive, with no case for parity here. Expected goals point the same way: 3.10 for the home side versus 1.27 for the visitors, for an estimated total of 4.37 goals in the match, a figure produced by our model and not an official statistic. The trends line up too: a 100% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 100% chance both teams score reinforce the idea of a high-scoring clash, even with a clear home favorite.

With those numbers and that history behind it, the match at the Allianz Arena promises goals from both sides, even if the scales are tilted heavily toward Bayern.