Bayo flips the script as Udinese edge Venezia 2-1 in Coppa Italia

Venezia came out firing at the Bluenergy Stadium: Richie Sagrado put the visitors ahead with just 8 minutes on the clock, finishing low from close range after a rebound off Lion Lauberbach. It looked like the setup for a rough night for Udinese, but the final score read 2-1 in favor of the home side, with Vakoun Bayo as the headline act of the comeback in the Coppa Italia.

The equalizer came right before the half hour mark: in the 33rd minute, Bayo headed in a cross from Mërgim Vojvoda off a corner kick to make it 1-1 before the break. Venezia had been the sharper side early on, with attempts from Lauberbach and Thierry Correia signaling their good form, but Udinese weathered the storm and made it to the locker room still very much alive.

Bayo's strike and the counterattack that decided it all

The second half was barely seven minutes old when Udinese turned the result completely around. In the 52nd minute, a well executed counterattack ended with Keinan Davis setting up Bayo again, who finished with his right foot through the middle of the goal to make it 2-1. It was the striker's second goal of the night, and the one that ultimately tipped the balance.

Venezia kept trying until the end. Simon Sohm tested the keeper with a header past the hour mark, Ridgeciano Haps and Akor Adams had their chances after coming off the bench, and there were even four minutes of stoppage time to search for an equalizer. But Udinese, with Idrissa Gueye and Oier Zarraga already on the pitch, held firm through the closing minutes without any major scares and sealed the win.

A match of crossed numbers

The curious part is that Venezia controlled the ball for nearly the entire match: the visitors racked up 64.8% possession and 585 passes compared to Udinese's 309. Even so, it was the home side that generated more real danger, with more shots, more shots on target and more corners in their favor.

The xG calculated from the match's shots comes out nearly even: 1.8 for Udinese against 1.823 for Venezia, a figure that confirms the visitors were far from mere bystanders and that the result could have gone either way.

The pre-match odds had been fairly tight: 43% win probability for Udinese, 29% for a draw and 28% for Venezia, with expected goals of 1.45 for the home side and 1.13 for the visitors, a combined total of 2.58. How the match played out ended up matching that read fairly well: a close contest, goals on both sides and a slim margin that ultimately fell Udinese's way.

With this result, Udinese pick up a hard fought win in the Coppa Italia, built on Bayo's finishing, as he settled with two goals what Venezia's possession couldn't turn into goals of their own. A match that makes clear that controlling the ball doesn't always translate into the final result.