Belgium hosts winless Turkey as heavy favorite, according to the numbers

Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Liege hosts a Group A1 UEFA Nations League clash in which Belgium needs a response after losing one of its first two matches, while Turkey arrives with the urgency of needing its first point. The Belgians sit second with 3 points, level with Italy, while France leads with a perfect 2 wins from 2 matches. Turkey, meanwhile, is bottom of the group with no points and a goal difference of -4 after also playing 2 games.

The contrast in the group's numbers is stark: Belgium has scored 2 goals and conceded 1 so far in the tournament, while Turkey has scored just 1 and conceded 5. As for recent form, Belgium arrives having won 3 of its last 5 matches, with two losses mixed in, an uneven run but one that still tilts positive. Turkey, for its part, has managed just 1 win in its last 5 outings, with 4 losses in that span, a current form that weighs heavily before kickoff.

It's also worth looking at how both sides fared in another sample, the 2025 World Cup, though that data shouldn't be mixed in with the group standings. Belgium averaged 2.333 goals scored per game and 1.167 conceded, playing both home and away in that competition, keeping a clean sheet in 20% of matches, and tends to find the net more often between the 76th and 90th minutes. Charles De Ketelaere and Romelu Lukaku were the top scorers there, with 3 goals each. Turkey, in that same World Cup sample, scored 1 goal per game and conceded 1.667, without a single clean sheet, and tends to strike early, between minute 0 and 15; Arda Guler, Kaan Ayhan and Baris Alper Yilmaz were its top scoring threats there.

Probable lineups

Mark van Bommel could stick with much of the side that has been getting minutes, with Thibaut Courtois in goal and a back line of Brandon Mechele, Timothy Castagne, Maxim De Cuyper and Nathan Ngoy. In midfield, expect Youri Tielemans, Kevin De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard, Nicolas Raskin and Hans Vanaken, with Charles De Ketelaere as the attacking reference. This is, however, a projected lineup, with medium reliability based on the data available.

For Vincenzo Montella, Turkey's probable lineup, of low reliability, would have Ugurcan Cakir in goal, Zeki Celik, Abdulkerim Bardakci, Merih Demiral and Ozan Kabak in defense, Orkun Kokcu, Ismail Yuksek, Salih Ozcan and Oguz Aydin in midfield, and Arda Guler alongside Baris Alper Yilmaz up top.

What the numbers say

Our model shows a clear edge for Belgium, this is nowhere near an even matchup on paper.

Expected goals back up that reading as well: 2.86 for Belgium against 0.76 for Turkey, for an estimated total of 3.62 goals in the match. The probability of going over 2.5 goals sits at 50%, while the chance of both teams scoring drops to 27%, suggesting a game that could be open, but with Belgium holding the clearest edge when it comes to scoring. It's worth noting this is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line.

With Belgium looking to close the gap on France and Italy at the top of the group and Turkey trying to avoid being left without arguments in the standings, the match in Liege promises to make clear just how much the numbers currently separate these two national teams.