Benfica thrashes Celtic 4-1 as Jhon Durán nets a brace in Europa League

Just four minutes had gone by at the Estádio da Luz when Jhon Durán had already put the hosts ahead from the penalty spot, and that start set the tone for the rest of the night. Benfica thrashed Celtic 4-1 in the Europa League, with a first half that all but settled the result before the break.

The penalty came after Dane Murray fouled Durán inside the box, and the forward made no mistake, slotting a left-footed finish into the center of the goal to make it 1-0. Celtic had barely had time to settle into the game. From there, Gianluca Prestianni became the engine of the home side's attack, setting up the second goal in the 22nd minute, when Alexander Bah curled a right-footed finish into the top corner after a through ball. Prestianni was involved again in the third goal, in the 35th minute, when a counterattack ended with Durán finishing low with his left foot, right next to the post. Benfica went into the break up 3-0, with the match already practically decided.

A rally that fell short

Celtic came out stronger after halftime and got their reward in the 62nd minute, when Camilo Durán, set up by Haissem Hassan's cross into the box, pulled one back with a close-range finish to make it 3-1. Between the 62nd and 73rd minutes, Celtic pressed hard around Benfica's box, with Camilo Durán rattling the left post in the 71st minute and Andreas Schjelderup hitting the post at the other end for Benfica two minutes later, but the Scottish side couldn't close the gap any further. The final blow came in the 88th minute, when Vangelis Pavlidis, who had come on for Durán, finished low with his right foot from outside the box, next to the left post, after a through ball from Tomás Araújo. The final score was 4-1.

The numbers behind the dominance

Possession and chance creation leaned heavily toward the Portuguese side for much of the match, though Celtic's accuracy in front of goal ended up roughly matching Benfica's.

Benfica's shot volume, 26 to 14, translated into an in-house estimate of 2.872 expected goals for the hosts versus 1.831 for the visitors, calculated from the shots taken during the match itself. That gap goes a long way toward explaining the final score: Celtic created real danger, but Benfica piled up more and better chances across the 90 minutes.

Heading into the match, our projection gave Benfica a 53% chance of winning, against a 24% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a Celtic win, with expected goals of 1.97 for the home side and 1.26 for the visitors (3.23 combined). The result went in Benfica's favor, as the model suggested, though the final margin was considerably wider than those numbers implied: four goals for the hosts and five goals total in the match both exceeded the pre-match projection.

Where it leaves the standings

The win leaves Benfica with 6 points from two matches played, with 2 wins and no losses, sitting in third place in the competition. Celtic, by contrast, remain on 0 points after the same two matches, with 2 losses, and sit 34th in the standings. The gap between the two sides is 6 points. It's still early, just two matchdays in, but the contrast between how each side has started the competition is already beginning to show.

For Benfica, the night belonged to Durán, who scored twice and won the opening penalty, and to Prestianni, who had a hand in the first two assists. For Celtic, Camilo Durán's goal on the break kept them from leaving empty-handed, but it wasn't enough to turn around a match that was essentially decided in the first half.