Beşiktaş and Marseille kick off Europa League campaigns in a wide-open duel

The Tüpras Stadyumu hosts a matchup with the feel of a league phase still in its infancy: neither Beşiktaş nor Marseille has picked up a single point yet in this edition of the Europa League, so today's game is, in practical terms, the real debut for both clubs in the tournament. With the table this wide open, any result will shake things up considerably.

Beşiktaş arrives on a recent run that invites optimism: of its last five matches, it won three, including the three most recent, after opening with two defeats. Marseille, on the other hand, is going through a rougher patch: just one win in its last five outings, with four losses in that span, the latest coming right before this trip to Istanbul.

Since neither side has played a match in this Europa League campaign yet, there's no competition-specific record to break down, and it's worth keeping in mind that the current standings, with zero points and zero games played for both clubs, don't say anything yet about either team's level: the current order is just a starting point.

There is some context worth examining, with caveats. Over its last four home matches in the 2024 Europa League, Beşiktaş averaged 2 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, without a single clean sheet in that span, and with a tendency to score mostly between the 76th and 90th minutes. Milot Rashica shows up as the most frequent scorer in that sample, with two goals, followed by Semih Kiliçsoy. On Marseille's side, the available reference is older: over its last seven road matches in the 2023 Europa League, it averaged 1.286 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, with clean sheets in just 14% of those matches, and also with heavier offensive output late in games. These are samples from a different competition or a different season, so they serve as trend indicators, not a direct forecast for today.

Probable lineups

Vincenzo Italiano could stick with much of the group behind the winning streak: Alexander Nübel in goal, a back line with Amir Murillo, Emirhan Topçu, Emmanuel Agbadou and Ridvan Yilmaz, and a midfield featuring Václav Cerny, Salih Özcan, Leandro Trossard, Orkun Kökçü and Junior Olaïtan, with Oh Hyeon-Gyu leading the line. This is an estimated lineup based on recent matches, not a confirmed one.

Bruno Génésio, for his part, has an eleven with more recent continuity: Jeffrey de Lange between the posts, Emerson, Timothy Weah, CJ Egan-Riley and Geoffrey Kondogbia across the back, and a midfield of Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Angel Gomes, Amine Harit, Himad Abdelli and Igor Paixão, with Amine Gouiri up top. This, too, is a projection, though one with somewhat higher reliability based on the available data.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model shows a fairly even matchup, with a slight edge toward the home side:

The gap between Beşiktaş's 37% and Marseille's 35% is razor thin, and the 28% draw probability reinforces the idea of a match with no clear favorite. This is our own estimate based on season trends, not a sportsbook line. The numbers also point to an open game: our model puts the probability of more than 2.5 goals at 86% and the chance of both teams scoring at 71%, consistent with a combined expected goals figure of 2.93 between the two sides.

With a Beşiktaş side riding momentum and a Marseille team searching for answers, both clubs' European debuts promise plenty of action on the scoreboard before the night in Istanbul is through.