Boca Juniors Looks to Snap Winless Streak Against Struggling Lanús at La Bombonera

Boca Juniors have seven points from six matches and just one win in the tournament, yet they sit second in Group A thanks to a pile of draws. This Saturday they host Lanús at La Bombonera, a side arriving with the same point total but eleven spots lower in the standings, in the Argentina Primera División. The gap between the two teams in the table is exactly zero points, so there's a lot more riding on this match than the numbers might suggest.

The home side hasn't won in the strictest sense for a while: of their last five games, three ended in draws and two in wins, with no losses in that stretch. So far this tournament they've posted one win, four draws and one loss, with six goals scored and eight allowed, averaging just 1 goal scored per game. Defensively, though, they've been solid, conceding just 0.38 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 63 percent of their outings. Miguel Merentiel leads the attack with five goals, followed by Milton Giménez and Adam Bareiro with three apiece.

Lanús, meanwhile, arrive in worse shape: over their last five matches they managed just one win, one draw and three losses. Their tournament record stands at two wins, one draw and three losses, with seven goals scored and seven allowed. Their form on the road is also concerning, keeping a clean sheet in only 25 percent of their away matches and conceding an average of 1.24 goals per game. Dylan Aquino is their top scorer with five goals, and interestingly, his team tends to score more between the 61st and 75th minutes, right around when Boca does most of its damage between the 46th and 60th.

The head-to-head record also points to a fairly even recent history: in eight meetings, Boca has won two, Lanús four, with two draws, and a combined scoreline of 9 goals for the home side and 7 for the visitors.

Likely Lineups

Boca's probable starting eleven, with medium confidence based on recent formations, would have Álvaro Montero in goal, a back line of Lautaro Blanco, Ayrton Costa, Lautaro Di Lollo and Leandro Lozano, a midfield of Milton Delgado, Santiago Ascacíbar and Leandro Paredes, and up front Tomás Aranda, Leonel Flores and Miguel Merentiel.

On Lanús's side, with lower confidence in the projection, Nahuel Losada would start in goal, a back four of Carlos Izquierdoz, Sasha Marcich, Tomás Guidara and Ronaldo Dejesús, a crowded midfield featuring Agustín Cardozo, Dylan Aquino, Felipe Peña Biafore, Eduardo Salvio and Ramiro Carrera, with Allan Wlk leading the line.

What the Numbers Say

Our model makes Boca the clearest favorite among the three outcomes, though far from a sure thing: a 52 percent probability leaves plenty of room for a draw, which sits at 31 percent. Expected goals also point to a tight scoreline: 1.35 for Boca versus 0.65 for Lanús, for an estimated total of 2 goals. It's worth noting this is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a fixed prediction. Additional trends point to a low-scoring match overall (just a 19 percent chance of more than 2.5 goals) and a 56 percent chance that both teams find the net.

With Boca needing all three points to stop piling up draws and Lanús desperate to snap its losing skid, La Bombonera hosts a matchup where the table doesn't fully capture what's at stake for either side.