Bolivia and Paraguay Clash in Washington With Paraguay the Heavy Favorite

Bolivia and Paraguay meet at Audi Field in Washington as part of the International Friendlies window, with both sides looking to fine-tune details away from home. There are no official points on the line, but there's plenty to watch: two squads arriving with uneven form, and the United States serving as an unusual stage for both.

Óscar Villegas's Bolivia is not going through its best stretch. Over its last five matches the team has collected just one win, a draw and three losses, a run that shows more shadows than light. The home numbers in International Friendlies during 2025 don't help much either: across three matches in that setting, Bolivia averages 1.333 goals scored per game while conceding 3.333, with clean sheets in only 33% of those matches. Luís Haquín and Robson Matheus stand out as the top scorers in that sample, with one goal apiece.

Paraguay, under Gustavo Alfaro, also arrives without much punch to spare: one win, two draws and two losses in its last five games. Still, playing on the road in 2025 International Friendlies (four matches in the sample), its attack performs somewhat better, averaging 1.75 goals scored per game, though it also struggles defensively, conceding 2.258 goals on average with clean sheets in just 25% of those matches. Miguel Almirón and Diego Gómez lead that sample with two goals each, and Damián Bobadilla has added one.

The head-to-head history between the two sides is minimal: just one recorded meeting, a 3-1 win for Paraguay. A single data point doesn't establish a trend, but it's the only record available of direct encounters.

Probable Lineups

On the Bolivian side, the probable lineup (with low reliability, according to our estimate) would have Carlos Lampe in goal, a back line with Lucas Macazaga, Marcelo Tórrez, Efraín Morales and Roberto Fernández, a midfield of Ervin Vaca, Robson Matheus, Moisés Villarroel and Gabriel Villamíl, and up top Fernando Nava alongside Carlos Melgar.

Paraguay presents a probable lineup with higher reliability: Orlando Gill between the posts; Gustavo Gómez, Juan José Cáceres, Júnior Alonso, Omar Alderete and Gustavo Velázquez across the back; Andrés Cubas, Miguel Almirón, Diego Gómez and Matías Galarza in midfield; and Julio Enciso as the attacking reference point.

What the Numbers Say

Our model has Paraguay as the clear favorite, though the figures are worth examining carefully before jumping to conclusions.

The split is stark: with 73% for Paraguay versus just 6% for Bolivia, the model anticipates a wide gap, something also reflected in the expected goals, 1.90 for the Guaraníes against 0.41 for the Bolivians, for a combined total of 2.31. This is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a locked-in result. Add to that a 42% probability the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance both teams score, leaving the door open for a game with some scoreboard action.

With Bolivia looking to right the ship and Paraguay trying to sustain continuity in attack, Audi Field will host a matchup where the favorite is clear on paper, but where, as always, the field will have the final say.