Bologna hosts a struggling Monza as clear favorite

Three wins in their last five matches have given Bologna a bit of breathing room, and they host Monza this weekend at the Renato Dall'Ara with hopes of climbing into the upper half of the table. Standing in their way will be a team in free fall: three losses in its last five outings and the lower reaches of the standings as familiar territory.

Raffaele Palladino's side sits 11th in Serie A with 11 points, the product of 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in 9 matches played, with 12 goals scored and 12 allowed. It's an even record for a team still trying to find its identity, but one that enters this match with momentum from three wins in its last five games, which also included a draw and a loss in that same stretch.

Monza, managed by Ivan Juric, is going through a far rockier patch. The club sits 16th with just 7 points from 9 matches (2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses), and its goal difference stands at minus 6, with 16 goals scored and 22 allowed. In its last five matches it won two and lost three, a stretch that leaves it only 4 points behind Bologna in the table despite the gap separating the two clubs in the overall standings.

What the home and away numbers show

At home so far in this 2026 Serie A season, Bologna is averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.76 allowed per match across a sample of 4 games, with no clean sheets in that span and the opening 15 minutes standing out as its most productive scoring window. Samuel Mbangula leads that sample with 3 goals, followed by Federico Bernardeschi with 2 and Roberto Piccoli with 1.

On the road, Monza is averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.81 allowed across 5 matches this season, also without a clean sheet, and tends to score most often between minutes 16 and 30. Gustavo Varela stands out as the main offensive threat in that sample with 8 goals, well ahead of Jay Robinson (2) and Saba Goglichidze (1).

The head to head history clearly favors Bologna: of the 7 matches played between the two sides, Bologna won 4, drew 2 and lost just 1, with an 11 to 4 goal difference in its favor.

Possible lineups

For Bologna, Palladino's likely lineup, projected from recent matches, would have Lukasz Skorupski in goal, with Arthur Theate, Matteo Darmian and Nicolo Casale across the back line. In midfield, Tommaso Pobega, Lewis Ferguson, Nadir Zortea and Juan Miranda would be expected to feature, while up front the attack would likely be built around Federico Bernardeschi, Nicolo Cambiaghi and Roberto Piccoli.

Juric's Monza, following that same logic, would line up with Noel Tornqvist in goal; Samuele Birindelli, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Andrea Carboni, Eddy Kouadio and Saba Goglichidze across the back; Ricardo Mangas, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro and Manga Foe Ondoa in midfield; and Gustavo Varela alongside Jay Robinson leading the attack.

What the model says

Our model gives a clear edge to Bologna to take all three points, though it doesn't rule out a surprise.

Our model's expected goals figures come out to 2.09 for Bologna and 0.92 for Monza, an estimated total of 3 goals in the match. This is our own projection, not a betting line, but it lines up with other calculated trends: a 65% probability of more than 2.5 total goals and a 75% chance that both teams find the net.

With recent history on its side and home field advantage, Bologna arrives as the clear favorite for this Serie A matchup. Monza, however, needs points by any means necessary to pull away from the relegation zone, and that urgency could make the Renato Dall'Ara a more open battleground than the percentages suggest.