League-leading Inter visits a struggling Bologna as the clear favorite

The Renato Dall'Ara welcomes a contrast that couldn't be any starker: Bologna, mired in the lower reaches of the table, against Internazionale, the league's only unbeaten side and current leader of Serie A. While the hosts look to put a stop to a run that has them sitting 14th, Inter arrives with the best defense among the top teams in the competition and an attack that shows no mercy.

The numbers from this season's league play tell the story on their own. Bologna has managed just 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 6 matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 7. The last five games haven't been kind either: two losses, two draws and only one win, though that win came in the most recent match, which could offer a bit of a confidence boost heading into this one.

Internazionale, on the other hand, sits atop the table with 5 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, 18 goals scored against just 8 allowed. Over its last five matches it picked up three wins, a draw and a loss, the only blemish so far in a season that remains unbeaten. The gap between the two sides in the standings stands at 11 points.

It's also worth looking at how each side performs in specific situations this 2026 Serie A season, without folding that into the overall numbers. Bologna, playing at home in a sample of 3 matches, scores 1 goal per game and concedes 1.34, without a single clean sheet, and tends to get on the board early, in the first 15 minutes. Inter, across a sample of 6 matches home and away, averages 3 goals scored per game and 1.33 conceded, with 33% of its matches ending in a clean sheet, and its most productive stretch falls between the 46th and 60th minutes. Lautaro Martinez, Marcus Thuram and Hakan Calhanoglu stand out as the names behind that offensive production.

The head-to-head record between the two sides doesn't point to a clear favorite either: across 8 matches there have been 2 wins for Bologna, 4 draws and 2 wins for Inter, with 12 goals for the home side and 13 for the visitors in the combined tally.

The probable lineups

On Bologna's side, led by Raffaele Palladino, the projected lineup (low confidence) features familiar names: Skorupski in goal, Heggem and Ferguson as regulars across defense and midfield, with Piccoli and Cambiaghi up top alongside Bernardeschi. On Inter's side, managed by Cristian Chivu, the probable lineup (medium confidence) points to Josep Martinez in goal, Bastoni and Bisseck in defense, Barella and Calhanoglu in midfield, and the Thuram-Lautaro Martinez pairing up front.

What the odds say

Our model gives Internazionale a clear, though not overwhelming, edge to take all three points:

A draw and a Bologna win combined account for nearly half of the possible outcomes, so an upset or a hard-earned point at home shouldn't be ruled out. Expected goals, another of our own estimates, point to 1.13 for Bologna and 1.78 for Inter, a combined 2.90 that lines up with a 58% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. These are our own projections, not betting odds.

With the standings showing an 11-point gap between the two clubs, Bologna will need more than good intentions to slow down the league leader. Inter, for its part, arrives with a chance to extend its unbeaten run in a stadium that hasn't been easy for the club in recent history.