Hot Boreham Wood host inconsistent Wigan Athletic in FA Cup clash

A National League side hosting a storied club that fell down the ranks: Boreham Wood throws open the doors of the Mangata Developments Stadium Meadow Park with genuine hope of pulling off an upset against Wigan Athletic, in an FA Cup tie that promises everything except boredom.

The hosts arrive red hot. Over their last five matches, Boreham Wood have racked up four wins and a draw, a run that has them riding high in confidence under Luke Garrard. At home in this FA Cup campaign, over a sample of three matches, they average 2 goals scored and 1.667 conceded per game, with a 67% clean sheet rate and a clear tendency to strike early: their most productive scoring window falls between minute 0 and 15. Matt Rush stands out as their top scorer in that sample with two goals, followed by Zak Brunt and Regan Booty.

Wigan Athletic, on the other hand, arrive with question marks. Over their last five matches they won just once, drew twice and lost twice, a far more inconsistent recent run than their opponents. Counting both home and away matches in this same FA Cup (a four-match sample), Gary Caldwell's side score 1 goal per match and concede 1.75, with just a 25% clean sheet rate. Like Boreham Wood, they also tend to do damage in the first 15 minutes. Callum McManaman and Christian Saydee, with two goals apiece in that sample, are their most frequent names up front.

Likely lineups

For Boreham Wood, a highly reliable projection based on recent matches points to a lineup with Ted Curd in goal; Charlie O'Connell, Chris Bush, Femi Ilesanmi and James Clarke across the back line; Regan Booty, Leon Ayinde, Tom White, Abdul Abdulmalik and Zak Brunt driving the midfield; and Matt Rush as the lone reference point up top.

Wigan Athletic, also projected with high reliability, would go with Sam Tickle in goal; James Carragher, Will Aimson and Jason Kerr in defense; Fraser Murray, Jensen Weir, Callum Wright, Raphael Borges Rodrigues and Matt Smith in midfield; and the pairing of Joe Taylor and Dara Costelloe up front.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Boreham Wood a certain edge as the home side, though not an overwhelming one: there is a game to be played here, and Wigan have room to win it, or at least draw.

The 55% probability for Boreham Wood sets up a scenario with a clear favorite but no room to take anything for granted: a 27% chance of a draw and an 18% chance for Wigan round out a split that still leaves plenty up for grabs. These figures come from our own model, built from season trends, and should not be read as sportsbook odds. The expected goals estimates, 1.73 for the hosts and 0.92 for the visitors, for a combined total of 2.65, point to a match with chances at both ends: in fact, the model puts the probability of more than 2.5 goals at 75% and the chance of both teams scoring at 50%.

With a hot home side striking fast and a visiting club needing to right the ship, Meadow Park has all the ingredients for an open contest from start to finish.