Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07: clear favorite at Signal Iduna Park

Two wins in two matches and a perfect start: that's how Borussia Dortmund arrives at this matchup against SC Paderborn 07 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK in the Bundesliga. Standing in their way is an opponent that has yet to taste victory in the league and comes in with just one point on the board.

Dortmund sits third in the table with 6 points from 2 matches played, a record of 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, 5 goals for and 2 against. The gap to Paderborn in the standings is 5 points. Still, with only two matchdays played, it's worth not drawing too many conclusions from the position: league leader FC Augsburg shares the same 6 points as Dortmund, and as many as four teams are tied at the top. As for recent form, counting the last five matches (a wider sample that shouldn't be confused with the league record), the home side has racked up four wins and a draw.

Paderborn, meanwhile, sits 12th with just 1 point: a draw and a loss, with no goals scored and only one conceded in the league. Over its last five matches (a different sample), it has two wins, two draws and a loss, the most recent coming in its latest outing. It's also worth looking at this Bundesliga season's trends home and away: Dortmund averages 2.5 goals scored and 1 conceded per match in that two-game sample, with clean sheets in 50% of matches and its most productive stretch between minutes 61 and 75, where Serhou Guirassy, Giannis Konstantelias and Fabio Silva stand out among the top scorers. Paderborn, in that same sample, has yet to score and concedes 0.5 goals per match, also with a 50% clean sheet rate, and its best stretch coming early, between minute 0 and 15.

A history that carries weight

The head-to-head record between the two sides heavily favors Dortmund: of the 8 matches played, it won 5, there were 3 draws, and Paderborn has yet to come out on top. The goal difference tells its own story: 35 for Dortmund against 13 for Paderborn across that cumulative history.

Probable lineups

With low reliability, since this is an estimate based on recent matches, Dortmund could take the field with Gregor Kobel in goal, a back line of Daniel Svensson, Joane Gadou, Waldemar Anton and Filippo Mane, a midfield of Felix Nmecha, Julian Ryerson, Maximilian Beier and Jobe Bellingham, and Konstantinos Karetsas alongside Serhou Guirassy up top. For Paderborn, the likely XI would have Dennis Seimen in goal, Tjark Scheller, Mattes Hansen, Jano ter Horst and Calvin Brackelmann on defense, Laurin Curda, Santiago Castaneda, Raphael Obermair, Gabriel Vidovic and Laurin Ulrich in midfield, and Stefano Marino leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Dortmund a 75% chance of winning, against 16% for a draw and just 9% for a Paderborn victory. This is our own projection, not a betting line, and it reflects a clear home favorite: expected goals sit at 2.79 for Dortmund against 0.93 for Paderborn, with a projected total of 3.72 goals in the match.

With the head-to-head record, recent form and the numbers all in its favor, Dortmund enters as a heavy favorite at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK. Paderborn, still winless in the league, will look to at least stop the bleeding on defense that has plagued it since the start of the Bundesliga season.