Unbeaten Bournemouth hosts a Milan side in need of points in Europa League

A perfect record against a team that needs to turn things around: Bournemouth comes into this Europa League clash at the Vitality Stadium with two wins from two, while across the pitch stands a Milan side still searching for its footing in the competition's league phase. There's plenty at stake for both clubs, though for very different reasons.

Bournemouth, under Marco Rose, has won both its matches in the competition so far, scoring five goals and conceding just one. In recent form across all competitions, the club has three wins and two losses in its last five games. Rose's side sits fifth in the table with 6 points, though with just two games played by every team, the standings still say little about each side's real level.

Milan, with Ruben Amorim in charge, has a more uneven record in the tournament: one win and one loss, with four goals scored and two conceded. Over its last five matches in all competitions, the club has three wins, a draw and a loss, a run that stands in contrast to its current standing in this competition, where it sits 16th with 3 points. The gap between the two clubs in the table is 3 points.

It's also worth looking at each team's own tendencies in this edition of the Europa League, though the sample is still small, just two games apiece between home and away. Bournemouth kept a clean sheet in half of those matches, and its most productive stretch came between the 76th and 90th minutes, with Rayan as the team's top scorer in this sample with two goals, followed by Justin Kluivert and Alvaro Rodriguez. Milan, for its part, also kept a clean sheet in half of its matches in this sample, but its best scoring window was the exact opposite: the opening 15 minutes. There, Alphadjo Cisse stands out with three goals, ahead of Goncalo Ramos.

Projected lineups

For Bournemouth, the projected lineup keeps Djordje Petrovic in goal, behind a back line of Adam Smith, Antonio Silva, James Hill and Adrien Truffert. The midfield would feature Tyler Adams, Marcus Tavernier, Rayan, Ryan Christie and Alex Scott, with Evanilson leading the attack. It's a lineup with a high confidence rating based on recent matches.

Milan, with a medium confidence rating on its projected XI, could field Mike Maignan in goal, with Strahinja Pavlovic, Koni De Winter and Mario Gila across the back, and a midfield of Samuel Chukwueze, Luka Modric and Yunus Musah. Up top, the projected lineup has Adrien Rabiot, Goncalo Ramos, Christian Pulisic and Alphadjo Cisse, though rotation among several of these names in recent matches leaves room for surprises.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives Bournemouth a degree of favoritism, though it doesn't leave Milan out of the conversation.

Expected goals back up that read: 1.72 for Bournemouth against 1.09 for Milan, for an estimated total of 2.82 goals in the match. These are figures from our own model, not betting odds, and they point to a game with a home-field edge but far from settled beforehand.

With Bournemouth looking to extend its perfect start at home and Milan needing points to avoid falling further behind in the table, the Vitality Stadium has the makings of a game that could be close on the scoreboard, even if the stakes are far from even for each side.