Bournemouth hosts in-form Everton as Cherries seek first points

Just one matchday into the Premier League season and there's already urgency at the Vitality Stadium. Bournemouth lost their opener and are looking to bounce back at home against an Everton side that arrived in fine form, with a win and a clean sheet to their name. It's not a must-win in the strictest sense, but it does offer an early snapshot of where each team's season might be headed.

The home side fell 1-2 in their season opener, with Marcus Tavernier scoring their only goal, and they still haven't tasted victory or even a draw this term. Their record stands at one match played, one loss, one goal scored and two conceded. Widening the lens to the last five matches (a different sample that blends other competitions or stretches of form), Bournemouth have picked up two wins, two draws and one loss, with the defeat being their most recent result. They're averaging one goal per game and tend to find the net between the 16th and 30th minutes, though they have yet to keep a clean sheet this season.

Standing in their way is an Everton side that won 2-0 on opening day, courtesy of goals from Thierno Barry and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, and currently boast an average of two goals scored and none conceded, with a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far. Over the last five games (again, a sample not to be confused with this season's league record), the balance reads two wins, one draw and two losses, closing out with back-to-back victories. Their most productive stretch comes late in the first half, between the 31st and 45th minutes.

In the table, there's barely any real separation: with just one match played apiece, Everton sit fourth with 3 points while Bournemouth are 13th with none, separated by just 3 points. At this early stage of the campaign, that gap says more about a single result than about the actual quality of either squad.

The head to head, however, clearly favors the home side: of 8 matches played, Bournemouth have won 6, Everton 2, with no draws, and the Cherries hold a 13-8 edge in goals scored.

Probable lineups

With high confidence based on recent patterns, Bournemouth could line up with Djordje Petrovic in goal; James Hill, Adrien Truffert, Marcos Senesi and Adam Smith across the back line; Marcus Tavernier, Alex Scott, Rayan, Junior Kroupi and Tyler Adams in midfield, and Evanilson leading the line.

Everton, with a medium confidence estimate, could field Jordan Pickford in goal; Vitalii Mykolenko, James Tarkowski, Merlin Rohl, Michael Keane and Jake O'Brien in defense; Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, James Garner and Tim Iroegbunam in midfield, with Iliman Ndiaye and Thierno Barry up top.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, points to a fairly even contest with a slight lean toward the home side:

The numbers don't point to a clear favorite: Bournemouth come out slightly ahead, but all three outcomes are relatively close together. Our expected goals estimate points to 1.47 for Bournemouth and 1.11 for Everton, with a projected total of 2.57 goals in the match. It's worth noting this is our own projection, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With Bournemouth needing to secure their first points of the season on home turf and Everton looking to prove their strong start was no fluke, the clash at the Vitality Stadium promises to be tighter than the table might suggest heading into this second round of Premier League action.