Cagliari edges past Arezzo with Deiola penalty in Coppa Italia

Cagliari edged past Arezzo with a tight 1-0 at the Unipol Domus, in a match corresponding to the Coppa Italia. The only goal of the game came from the penalty spot through Alessandro Deiola, in a contest that turned out to be far more even than the scoreline suggests, with an Arezzo side that pushed a higher-category opponent all the way to the final whistle.

A penalty that opened the door

The first half was end to end, with chances for both sides from early on. Michel Adopo and Muhamed Djamanca had the first looks on goal before the 15th minute, and shortly after, Cagliari found the key to the match. In the 17th minute, Alessandro Renzi fouled Alessandro Deiola inside the box and the referee pointed to the spot for Cagliari. The play first went to VAR, which reviewed the decision in the 20th minute and confirmed it, and two minutes later, in the 22nd, Deiola himself made no mistake from twelve yards, sending a low shot just inside the left post to make it 1-0.

Before that play, both Paul Mendy and Deiola had struck the left post of Arezzo's goal, in an intense first half in which the visitors also gave warning with shots from Djamanca and Alessandro Arena. In the second half, the match kept the same rhythm: Arezzo pushed for the equalizer and in the 64th minute appealed for another penalty that, after a VAR review, was waved off. Cagliari, for its part, had clear chances through Gennaro Borrelli and Daniel Maldini in the closing minutes, but the opposing goalkeeper and a lack of precision denied the second goal that would have settled the result.

What the numbers say

The stats reflect a contest far more balanced than the scoreline suggests. Arezzo had more possession of the ball and generated more shots, though both sides finished level on shots on target.

According to an in-house estimate calculated from shot location, the xG for the match was 1.879 for Cagliari and 1.645 for Arezzo, a figure that confirms how tight the game was and suggests the result could have been different with a bit more sharpness from the visitors in front of goal.

A tighter result than expected

Beforehand, we had projected a 68% chance of victory for Cagliari, against a 20% chance of a draw and a 12% chance of an Arezzo win, with expected goals of 2.35 for the home side and 0.94 for the visitors, a combined total of 3.29 goals. Reality proved far closer: Cagliari won, as expected, but by a single goal, with an Arezzo side that stood toe to toe in nearly every facet of play, far from the gap those pre-match numbers had anticipated.

What the match leaves behind

Cagliari adds a win that lets it continue on its path in the Coppa Italia by the narrowest of margins, backed by Deiola's reliability from twelve yards, while Arezzo departs with the feeling of having gone toe to toe with a higher-category rival, without a reward on the scoreboard despite a strong collective showing, particularly in ball control and chance creation over the course of the 90 minutes.