Carranza Misses Penalty but Tigres Can't Hold On: Necaxa Rallies Through Aguirre to Escape Estadio Universitario

Julian Carranza had the whole match in his feet and let it slip from the penalty spot. That missed penalty in the 23rd minute ends up being the image that sums up the afternoon at Estadio Universitario, where Tigres and Necaxa drew 1-1 in a match that finished level on the scoreboard but tilted toward the visitors when it came to clear chances.

The start was a gut punch for the home side. Just in the 11th minute, after a shot from Matias Espindola crashed off the crossbar, Owen Gonzalez pounced on the rebound to make it 0-1 with a low finish from close range. Necaxa, who had already given warning with two chances in the opening minutes through Espindola and Carranza, found quick reward for their persistence.

Nine minutes later came the play that could have changed everything: VAR reviewed a handball inside the box by Rodrigo Aguirre and awarded a penalty to Necaxa. Carranza stepped up to take it, but his shot went wide of the right post, wasting the chance to put daylight between the two sides. The miss hung in the air, because just sixteen minutes later, in the 39th, that same Rodrigo Aguirre popped up to make amends: a header into the top corner off a Juan Brunetta corner kick, making it 1-1 at the break.

A Back and Forth Match That Never Broke

The second half didn't slow down. Tigres kept pushing down the flanks with Diego Lainez, who tried his luck several times without success, and Necaxa answered through Carranza and Javier Ruiz, who created danger in isolated plays. There were shots blocked on both ends, an injury to Espindola that forced a substitution, and yellow cards handed out in an intense match, but neither goal was breached again.

The postmatch numbers leave a striking detail: even though Tigres controlled possession and generated a higher volume of play, the estimated xG based on shots clearly favors Necaxa, with 3.619 against 1.648 for the home side. That gap speaks to the clear chances the visiting team had, also reflected in the big chances count: three for Necaxa to one for Tigres.

The result strays well from what was projected before kickoff. The preview gave Tigres a 60% chance of winning, against just 16% for Necaxa and 24% for a draw, with expected goals of 2.00 for the home side and 0.94 for the visitors. None of that held up: Necaxa not only avoided defeat but was the team that generated the most clear chances, and the draw ended up being, if anything, a modest outcome given what they showed going forward.

What the Draw Means in the Standings

In Liga MX, this result leaves both teams in the lower half of the table: Tigres have 6 points from 7 matches played (1 win, 3 draws, 3 losses), while Necaxa sit on 8 points also from 7 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), just 2 points apart. Neither side could pull away from the bottom of the standings, and the draw, with Carranza as both the failed protagonist and later the man driving the danger, leaves the sense that Necaxa walked away with a bit more than the final score suggests.