Casa Pia, bottom of the table and leaking goals, hosts unbeaten favorite Santa Clara

Sixteen goals conceded in seven matches. That number explains why Casa Pia enters this clash sitting 17th in Liga Portugal, and why Santa Clara, unbeaten in the competition, shows up as the favorite before setting foot in the Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior.

The contrast between the two sides' records this season is stark. Casa Pia has managed just one win, one draw and five losses in its seven outings, scoring only 3 goals while conceding 16. Santa Clara, meanwhile, has yet to taste defeat: 4 wins and 3 draws have it sitting fourth, with 11 goals scored and 4 allowed. The gap between the two clubs in the standings is 11 points.

As for recent form, the Lisbon side arrives bruised: over its last five matches it has three losses, one draw and just a single win. Santa Clara, by contrast, hasn't lost in that same stretch, picking up three wins and two draws in its last five outings.

The season splits by home and away form also paint a tough picture for Casa Pia: playing at home in this Liga Portugal campaign, across a small sample of just 3 matches, the club averages 0.327 goals scored per game and 3.99 conceded, without a single clean sheet. Santa Clara, in its away form and also over 3 matches, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.677 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in 33% of its road trips. These are small samples from different competitions than the overall record, but they point to a clear trend: the home side leaking goals in bunches, the visitors keeping things tighter at the back.

What the head to head says

The two sides have met 7 times, with the edge going to Santa Clara: 3 wins to Casa Pia's 2, plus 2 draws, with a combined scoreline of 7 goals for Santa Clara against 5 for Casa Pia.

Probable lineups

For Casa Pia, with low confidence given coach Filipe Coelho's recent rotation, the projected XI would include Andre Gomes in goal, a back line with Andre Geraldes, David Sousa, Pedro Rosas and Khaly, a midfield of Lawrence Ofori, Selvi Clua, Joao Rego and Kevin Prieto, and up top Henrique Araujo alongside Alassana Jatta.

Santa Clara, managed by Petit, should field a more settled lineup: Lucas Franca between the posts, a back line of Pedro Pacheco, Guilherme Romao, Emanuel Moreira and Lucas Soares, a midfield of Pedro Ferreira, Dje Tavares and Tiago Ribeiro, and an attacking trio of Vinicius Lopes, Goncalo Paciencia and Brenner.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives Santa Clara the clearer edge, though not by an overwhelming margin: a draw also looms as a real possibility.

Expected goals, another of our own estimates, back up that reading: 0.8 for Casa Pia versus 1.22 for Santa Clara, for a projected total of 2.02 goals in the match. On top of that, according to our calculated trends, there's a 50% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance both teams find the net. These are our own projections, not betting odds.

With Casa Pia in need of points to climb out of the basement and Santa Clara looking to keep its unbeaten run alive, the match in Rio Maior promises to pit two very uneven sides against each other on paper, though the pitch still has the final say.