Celje and Salzburg both search for a response in Europa League toss-up

Zero points, zero goals scored and five conceded. That's the state Celje is in heading into this matchup against Salzburg, a game between two teams badly in need of a three-point haul in the Europa League league phase. At Stadion Z'dezele, the competition's bottom side takes on an Austrian club that isn't exactly thriving either.

Celje, managed by Zoran Zeljkovic, has no statistical room for error: so far in the competition they've racked up two losses in two games, without scoring a single goal and having conceded five. Their form over the last five matches across all competitions is only marginally better, with one win, two draws and two losses in that span. This is a team that's been battered and badly needs to find the back of the net again soon.

Salzburg isn't much better off in the standings, though the overall feel is more encouraging. Their record in the tournament reads one win and one loss in two games, with just one goal scored and four conceded, a negative goal difference that stands in contrast to their recent form: over their last five matches they've won three, drawn one and lost just once. Haris Tabakovic stands out as their main attacking threat, with one goal in the trend sample for this Europa League campaign (two games, home and away), during which the Austrian side also kept a clean sheet in half of those matches and tends to score late in the first half, between the 31st and 45th minutes.

In the overall standings, the gap is razor-thin: Celje sits in last place with 0 points while Salzburg sits three points above them, though that figure shouldn't be overstated since only two matchdays have been played and the table still says little about each squad's real level.

Probable lineups

For Celje, the probable lineup (rated low reliability based on the recent matches analyzed) would have Zan-Luk Leban between the posts, a back line of Milot Avdyli, Pijus Sirvys, Lukasz Bejger and Artemijus Tutyskinas, a midfield of Yaya Dukuly, Mark Zabukovnik, Luka Ticic and Benjamin Verbic, with Svit Seslar leading the attack.

Salzburg's probable lineup carries higher reliability: Christian Zawieschitzky in goal, Dominik Schmid, Kévin Boma and Valentin Zabransky across the back, a crowded midfield featuring Abubakr Barry, Edmund Baidoo, Bartosz Mazurek, Sota Kitano, Jesper Lindstrøm and Yorbe Vertessen, with Haris Tabakovic up front.

What do the numbers say?

Our model, built on this season's trends, points to a tight forecast for this matchup:

The numbers are close, with no clear favorite: Celje's 39% as the home side barely edges out Salzburg's 34%, and the 27% chance of a draw leaves the door open to pretty much any result. The expected goals figures, 1.58 to 1.48, point to a game with chances for both sides, though it's worth remembering this is EnPelotas's own estimate, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

With both teams in urgent need of points and goals, the match at Stadion Z'dezele shapes up as a direct test of which side can fix its defensive issues first.