Celta and Racing meet at Balaidos both needing all three points

Zero wins in six matchdays and a 17th place spot that's starting to weigh heavy: that's how Celta de Vigo arrives at Balaidos, desperate to snap a run of draws that hasn't been enough to climb out of the relegation zone. Standing in their way will be Racing de Santander, a team that isn't exactly overflowing with stability either, but arrives with the edge of at least knowing how to win every now and then. The match is part of LaLiga action, and there are three points that neither side can afford to leave behind.

Celta hasn't broken the habit of drawing games: so far this season the club has posted 0 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, with just 3 goals scored and 6 conceded across 6 matches. The last five games haven't been any better: two losses and three draws, without a single win. This is a team that can't find the back of the net, and at Balaidos this season it has scored just 0.66 goals per game while conceding 1.66, without a single clean sheet in that home sample. Ferran Jutgla, Iago Aspas and Carl Starfelt are the only players who have found the net in those home matches, with one goal apiece.

Racing sits in 10th place with 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in 6 matches, having scored 11 goals and conceded 16, a negative balance that reflects a team that attacks but bleeds goals at the back. Over its last five games it swung between wins and losses: two victories and three defeats, with no sign of consistency. On the road this LaLiga season, Racing averages 1.34 goals scored and a worrying 3.66 conceded per game, without a clean sheet in that away sample. Yassir Zabiri stands out as the club's top scoring threat in those road games, with 6 goals.

Head to head, the history between these two is thin: just one previous meeting, a 3 to 2 win for Celta. There isn't much more to draw from that record.

Probable lineups

With low reliability since these are probable, not confirmed, lineups, Celta de Vigo, managed by Claudio Giraldez, is expected to line up with Ionut Radu in goal, a back line of Marcos Alonso, Yoel Lago, Carl Starfelt and Javi Rodriguez, a midfield of Miguel Roman, Ilaix Moriba, Sergio Carreira and Alvaro Nunez, and Ferran Jutgla alongside Pablo Duran up front.

Racing de Santander, under Jose Alberto Lopez, would field Julen Agirrezabala in goal, a defensive line with Jorge Salinas, Alvaro Mantilla, Manu Hernando, Facu Gonzalez and Pablo Ramon, a midfield of Sergio Canales, Inigo Vicente, Matteo Prati and Ivan Martin, with Asier Villalibre leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model tabs Celta as the favorite, though not by an overwhelming margin:

This is our own estimate, not a betting line, and it gives Celta a 59% chance against Racing's 19%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The likelihood of more than 2.5 goals sits at 50%, and the chance of both teams scoring at 44%, numbers that fit two sides that concede goals rather easily.

With Celta desperate for its first win and Racing looking to shore up a defense that leaks goals away from home, Balaidos has the makings of anything but a tightly shut down affair.