Celtic chases first Europa League point as unbeaten Besiktas visits Celtic Park

Celtic arrives at this match with three losses in three games and without a single point to show for it in the Europa League league phase. Besiktas, meanwhile, comes into Celtic Park unbeaten, with two wins and a draw. These are two opposite situations within the same overall group stage, and that alone explains why this matchup matters: one side needs to turn things around immediately, the other wants to prove its strong start was no fluke.

Celtic's numbers so far in the competition are grim: three games played, three lost, with 3 goals scored and 9 conceded. Over its last five matches across all competitions, the picture improves somewhat: two wins, a draw and two losses, a sample that suggests the team isn't as bad as its European record implies. Still, in this season's Europa League, home and away combined, Celtic is averaging just 1 goal scored per game while conceding 3, without a single clean sheet across those three matches. Its most productive scoring window falls between the 31st and 45th minutes.

Besiktas, for its part, has racked up two wins and a draw in its three group games, with 9 goals scored and 5 allowed. Its recent form over the last five matches is also strong: two wins, two draws and just one loss. In that same Europa League sample this season, the Turkish side is scoring 3 goals per game and conceding 1.667, also without a clean sheet, with its best scoring window coming between the 46th and 60th minutes. In the overall standings, Besiktas sits eighth with 7 points after three games played, while Celtic is at the bottom of the table with zero points, a 7 point gap separating the two sides heading into this direct matchup.

Projected lineups

Celtic, based on an estimate drawn from its recent matches and rated medium reliability, would likely start with Sam Johnstone in goal, a back four of Kieran Tierney, Colby Donovan, Liam Scales and Dane Murray, and a midfield featuring Callum McGregor, Mika Baur, Callum Osmand, Benjamin Nygren and Haissem Hassan, with Camilo Duran leading the line up front. Both Mika Baur and Camilo Duran rank among the team's top scorers in this Europa League trend sample, with 2 and 1 goal respectively.

On the Besiktas side, with a lower reliability rating on the projection, the estimated lineup would have Alexander Nubel in goal, a back four of Amir Murillo, Emirhan Topcu, Ridvan Yilmaz and Emmanuel Agbadou, a crowded midfield of Leandro Trossard, Vaclav Cerny, Wilfred Ndidi, Salih Ozcan and Junior Olaitan, and Dusan Vlahovic up top. In that same trend sample, Oh Hyeon-Gyu and Amir Murillo share the team scoring lead with 2 goals apiece.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives Celtic a clear but not overwhelming edge, backed by home advantage:

This is an in house estimate derived from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. The model also projects expected goals of 2.01 for Celtic and 1.23 for Besiktas, a combined total of 3.24 that lines up with the trends surrounding this matchup: a 100% probability of over 2.5 total goals and a 100% chance both teams score.

With a home side needing to snap a losing streak at home against an unbeaten group stage opponent, and with the trends pointing to an open game with goals at both ends, the clash at Celtic Park promises action from start to finish.