Celtic hosts Ferencváros looking for its first Europa League points

Celtic Park is set to host a Europa League clash between Celtic and Ferencváros, two sides that have yet to open their points tally in the competition's league phase. Neither club has played a match yet according to the competition record, so both start from scratch today: there's no table to break down, just recent form and each team's tendencies to get a sense of what might unfold.

Celtic arrive on the back of four wins in their last five matches, though that run was snapped by a loss in their most recent outing. Ferencváros, meanwhile, have three wins, a draw and a loss over that same stretch, with the wrinkle that their last two results were both victories. Neither run reflects this season's Europa League results specifically, but rather each club's last five matches overall.

Looking at Celtic's home tendencies in the 2025 Europa League (a sample of five matches), the Scottish side average 1.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, with no clean sheets in that stretch, and they tend to score most often between the 61st and 75th minutes. Benjamin Nygren stands out as their top scorer in that sample with four goals, followed by Auston Trusty with two. On the Hungarian side, playing away in the same competition and season (six matches), Ferencváros average 1 goal scored and 2.167 conceded, with just 17% of matches without conceding and a tendency to score between the 46th and 60th minutes. Bamidele Yusuf leads that department with three goals, followed by Kristoffer Zachariassen and Lenny Joseph with two apiece.

The head-to-head history between the two isn't negligible either: across three previous meetings, Celtic won two and Ferencváros one, with a combined 6 goals for the Scots against 4 for the Hungarian side. It's a precedent that, while not deciding anything for today, suggests this won't be a low-scoring affair.

Probable lineups

Without official confirmation yet, Celtic's projected lineup features Viljami Sinisalo in goal, a back line of Colby Donovan, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Liam Scales and Auston Trusty, a midfield of Callum McGregor, Mika Baur, Benjamin Nygren, Haissem Hassan and Yang Hyun-Jun, with Camilo Durán leading the attack.

For Ferencváros, the probable lineup has Dénes Dibusz in goal, with Cadu, Mariano Gómez, Toon Raemaekers and Attila Osváth across the back, Márius Corbu, Kristoffer Zachariassen, Bamidele Yusuf, Philippe Rommens and Gabi Kanichowsky in midfield, and Lenny Joseph up front.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Celtic a moderate edge, though the gap isn't overwhelming:

Those figures make Celtic the favorite thanks to home advantage, but with a margin that leaves the draw and the away win nearly even with each other. Our expected goals estimate points in the same direction, toward an open game: 1.93 for Celtic against 1.28 for Ferencváros, for a projected total of 3.2 goals. That lines up with 73% of our projections pointing to more than 2.5 goals in the match, though only 40% see both teams scoring. It's worth clarifying that these percentages are our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With both teams chasing their first result of this Europa League phase, the match at Celtic Park promises more action on the scoreboard than a tightly locked contest. The question is whether Celtic will make the most of home advantage to collect their first points, or whether Ferencváros will keep up the steady pace of their last two outings.