CF Montreal hosts Atlanta United in a battle at the bottom of the MLS East

A clash between second-to-last and third-to-last in the MLS Eastern Conference: that's what Stade Saputo has in store when CF Montreal hosts Atlanta United. In the East standings they are separated by just 3 points, with Montreal sitting 15th and Atlanta 14th. Neither side is fighting for the top of the table, but both have plenty of reason to chase all three points and put some distance between themselves and the bottom.

The home side is carrying a rough record this season: in 28 matches played, Montreal has won just 6, drawn 6 and lost 16, scoring 35 goals and conceding 56, a goal difference that weighs heavily. Its last five matches haven't offered much relief either, with two wins and three losses and no real run of form to speak of. Atlanta United's numbers aren't drastically different (7 wins, 6 draws, 15 losses in 28 matches, with 33 goals scored and 48 allowed), and its last five games have been similarly shaky: one win, two draws and two losses.

Looking at home and away splits this season, Montreal is averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.28 allowed per game at home across a sample of 14 matches, with 21% of those games ending in a clean sheet and its strongest scoring window falling between the 16th and 30th minutes. Atlanta, meanwhile, has struggled on the road this season, averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 allowed in 14 away matches, with clean sheets in just 14% of those games and its best scoring stretch coming late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. The numbers point to an Atlanta side that struggles away from home and tends to find the net late.

Within that same sample, a few names stand out as the top scoring threats for each club: for Montreal, Prince Owusu leads the way with 15 goals, followed by Daniel Rios with 6 and Wiki Carmona with 4. For Atlanta, Aleksey Miranchuk tops the list with 6, Miguel Almiron has 5 and Tristan Muyumba has chipped in 4.

The head-to-head record

History tilts in the visitors' favor: of the 8 meetings between these two clubs, Atlanta United has won 4, Montreal has won 2 and 2 ended in draws, with the visitors outscoring the hosts 15 to 10 across those matchups.

Possible lineups

With medium confidence based on recent matches, Montreal could line up with Sebastian Breza in goal, a back line of Jalen Neal, Brayan Ceballos and Brandan Craig, a midfield of Victor Loturi, Luca Petrasso, Matty Longstaff and Dante Sealy, and an attacking trio of Prince Owusu, Daniel Rios and Alexis Sanchez. Atlanta United, for its part, could field Lucas Hoyos between the posts, a defense of Elias Baez, Tomas Jacob, Junior Alonso and Enea Mihaj, a midfield of Mauricio Amaro, Tristan Muyumba, Aleksey Miranchuk and Giuliano Galoppo, and a strike partnership of Breel Embolo and Miguel Almiron.

Our model sees a tight match, with a slight lean toward the home side:

This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line. Expected goals are also close: 1.43 for Montreal versus 1.25 for Atlanta, a combined total of 2.68. Additional trends point to a 46% chance the match goes over 2.5 total goals and a 41% chance both teams score, figures that line up with two defenses that have been conceding regularly.

With so little separating these two sides in the standings and a head-to-head record favoring the visitors, the match at Stade Saputo looks more likely to end in a draw than in a clear win for either team.