Chapecoense hosts São Paulo in search of a miracle to survive relegation

Arena Condá hosts a matchup with very different levels of urgency when Chapecoense welcomes São Paulo in the Brasileirão. The home side sits dead last in the table and needs points with mathematical desperation, while the visitors are looking to climb out of the bottom half of the standings and get into contention for an international spot.

How the teams arrive

Chapecoense is enduring a season to forget: in 22 matches played, it has managed just 1 win, 8 draws and 13 losses, with 23 goals scored and 46 allowed, the worst goal difference in the entire league. Over its last five matches the club has picked up three draws and two losses, without a single win. The green side averages 1.46 goals scored and 2.46 conceded per match, and has kept a clean sheet in only 9% of its games, a number that lays bare its defensive fragility. Its most productive scoring stretch comes between the 16th and 30th minutes, and Marcinho leads the scoring chart with 3 goals, alongside Rafael Carvalheira and Túlio, who have 2 each.

São Paulo, sitting in 13th place, shows a more balanced record: 7 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in 22 matches, with 27 goals scored and 26 allowed. Over its last five outings it posted three draws, one loss and one win, an uneven run but with far fewer setbacks than its upcoming opponent. The São Paulo side scores 0.917 goals per match and concedes 1.412, sturdier numbers than Chapecoense's, though its clean sheet rate (8%) is actually even lower. The team tends to break games open between the 61st and 75th minutes. Jonathan Calleri, with 7 goals, and Luciano, with 6, are its top offensive threats.

The table makes the gap between the two sides clear: 16 points separate Chapecoense from São Paulo in the overall standings.

Head to head history

Recent history doesn't favor the home side either. Of the 8 meetings on record between these two clubs, São Paulo has won 4, there have been 3 draws, and Chapecoense has come out on top just once. The combined goal tally tells its own story: 15 goals for the São Paulo side against just 5 for the Santa Catarina club.

Possible lineups

Based on data drawn from the most recent matches (an estimate, not an official confirmation), Chapecoense could field Anderson in goal, with Doma, Fernando, Bruno Tubarão and Kauan Faria across the back line, Camilo, Max and Bruno Matias in midfield, and an attacking trio made up of Giovanni Augusto, Marcinho and Kevin Ramírez.

On the visitors' side, São Paulo would likely go with Rafael between the posts, a back line of Robert Arboleda, Lucas Ramon, Domingos Duarte and Wendell, a midfield of Marcos Antônio, Pablo Maia, Newton and Danielzinho, and Luciano and Jonathan Calleri paired up front.

Match probabilities

According to EnPelotas' own model, the odds tilt toward the visitors, though not by an overwhelming margin.

The 43% in favor of São Paulo confirms its status as the favorite, though the 30% chance of a draw makes clear the result is anything but settled, especially given a home side that tends to make life difficult for opponents even when it doesn't win. Expected goals (xG), an in-house estimate rather than an official figure, put Chapecoense at 1.09 and São Paulo at 1.44, for a combined 2.54, in line with trends pointing to a 57% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams find the net.

Looking ahead

Chapecoense needs something close to a miracle to turn around a nearly lost season, while São Paulo arrives with the responsibility of exploiting its rival's defensive fragility to climb the table. The numbers point to a match with goals on both ends, though with the São Paulo side as the team best positioned to take home all three points.