Chesterfield hosts Yeovil Town in FA Cup with history on its side

The SMH Group Stadium gears up for another FA Cup tie, with Chesterfield hosting Yeovil Town in a matchup that looks fairly even on paper, whatever the broader numbers might suggest. There's no two-legged tie or round that matters more than another here, just a cup match both sides want to win to keep their run in the competition alive.

Chesterfield arrives with mixed form. Over their last five matches they've picked up two wins, a draw and two losses, an inconsistent run that hasn't quite given Paul Cook's side any real momentum. Yeovil Town, for their part, are going through a tougher spell: of their last five fixtures they won just one, drew one and lost the other three, a stretch that weighs on them heading into this trip.

When it comes to trends within this season's FA Cup, some caution is needed: Chesterfield, across a sample of two matches in this competition in the 2025 season playing both home and away, kept a clean sheet in half of those games and were especially dangerous between the 31st and 45th minutes, a window in which Lee Bonis stands out as their top scorer in that sample with two goals. Yeovil Town, meanwhile, carry data from a different sample, the 2023 FA Cup, in which they failed to keep a clean sheet in any match and their most productive spell was the opening 15 minutes. These are snapshots from different contexts, not a direct reflection of how either side arrives today.

The head to head record clearly favors Chesterfield: of the 8 matches played, they won 5, 2 ended in draws and Yeovil Town won just 1. On goals, Chesterfield scored 13 to the visitors' 6, a gap that backs up the notion of a comfortable home side in this fixture over time.

Probable lineups

With the caveat that this is an estimated rather than confirmed lineup, Chesterfield would likely field Ryan Boot in goal, a back line with Kyle McFadzean, Lewis Gordon, Sil Swinkels and Sam Curtis, a midfield of Ryan Stirk, Dilan Markanday, Sammy Braybrooke, Liam Mandeville and Armando Dobra, and Lee Bonis leading the line up front.

Yeovil Town, also on a probable basis, would line up with Jed Ward in goal, Ryan Jones, Dan Ellison, Joy Mukena and Finn Cousin-Dawson in defense, Brett McGavin, Delano McCoy-Splatt and Troy Perrett in midfield, and an attacking trio of Will Merry, James Daly and Terrell Works.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model projects a moderate edge for Chesterfield, though it's far from a sure thing. Here's how it splits the probabilities:

The 48% figure for the home side falls short of an overwhelming favorite tag, and the 30% chance of a draw makes clear the match is far from a foregone conclusion. As for expected goals, our own estimate puts Chesterfield at 1.46 and Yeovil Town at 0.93, for a projected total of 2.38 goals in the match. As always, this is our own projection and not a betting line.

With a head to head record that favors Chesterfield and recent form that hasn't settled things for either side, the match promises to be tighter than the overall numbers might suggest at first glance.