Lewandowski's Chicago Fire Host an NYCFC Team That Owns the Head-to-Head Record

Robert Lewandowski in a Chicago Fire jersey still feels like an image that's hard to fully process, yet there he is, fighting for position in the MLS Eastern Conference. The Fire host New York City FC at Soldier Field with fourth place in the East on the line and a recent head-to-head record that points to goals from both sides.

Chicago arrives with 45 points from 27 games played (13 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses), with 49 goals scored and 39 allowed, a mark that keeps them just one point behind Inter Miami and New England Revolution, who share second place with 46 points. The gap to NYCFC in the standings is 12 points. Over their last five matches the Fire have picked up one draw, two losses and two wins, with victories in their two most recent outings giving them a bit of momentum.

NYCFC, ninth with 33 points, arrives in choppier form: across the season they've gone 8-9-10 in wins, draws and losses, with 41 goals scored and 36 allowed. Over their last five games they've managed a draw, a loss, a win, another loss and one more draw, a stretch that leaves them without any clear winning rhythm heading into this road trip.

It's worth looking at how each side performs in its own building. At home in this 2026 MLS season, across a sample of 13 games, the Fire average 1.932 goals scored and 1.163 allowed per match, with 31% of those games ending in clean sheets; their most productive stretch comes between the 76th and 90th minutes. Maren Haile-Selassie leads that sample with 9 goals, followed by Lewandowski and Philip Zinckernagel with 6 apiece. On the other side, NYCFC on the road in that same 13-game sample average 1.163 goals scored and 1.163 allowed, with just 15% clean sheets and their best stretch between the 16th and 30th minutes; Nicolas Fernandez Mercau stands out as their top offensive threat in that split, with 15 goals, well ahead of Agustin Ojeda and Hannes Wolf, who have 5 each.

The head-to-head history clearly favors the visitors: in 8 meetings, NYCFC has won 5, there have been 3 draws and the Fire have never come out on top, with Chicago scoring 6 goals total against 15 for New York City.

Probable lineups

With low reliability based on their last six games, the Fire could line up with Chris Brady in goal; a back line of Jack Elliott, Jonathan Dean and Noah Allen; Dje D'Avilla, Zinckernagel, Anton Saletros and Sergio Oregel Jr. in midfield; and Haile-Selassie, Lewandowski and Johan Gomez up top.

NYCFC, with medium reliability in this projection, shapes up with Matt Freese in goal; Thiago Martins, James Sands, Nico Cavallo and Raul Gustavo across the back; Fernandez Mercau, Ojeda, Andres Perea and Hannes Wolf in midfield; and Benie Traore alongside Luighi up front.

What the numbers say

Our model points to a close match, though with a slight edge for the home side:

These are our own projections, not betting odds, and the split between the Fire's 46% and the 27% shared equally by a draw and a New York City win shows that, despite the history favoring the visitors, this match is far from a formality for either side. On top of that, our model also projects a 58% chance of more than 2.5 goals and an 85% chance that both teams score, which fits a wide-open game between two teams with leaky defenses.

With Lewandowski looking to add to his home tally and NYCFC trying to snap its inconsistent run, Soldier Field is shaping up for a back-and-forth affair.