China hosts a Struggling New Zealand Looking to Make It Two Wins in a Row

China arrives with a fresh rout still fresh in memory: a 3-0 win in its opening match of this International Friendlies cycle, and now hosts New Zealand at Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium looking to string together a second straight feel-good result at home.

Shao Jiayi's side didn't just win its last match: over its last five outings it has racked up three wins, one draw and just one loss, a run that gives it some breathing room heading into this matchup. So far in the tournament its record is spotless: one match played, one won, three goals scored and none conceded. One clarification is worth adding here: in a sample of a single friendly played both home and away in the 2026 season, China scored three goals and conceded none, with Wang Ziming responsible for all three goals and the stretch between the 46th and 60th minutes as its most productive spell. It's an interesting data point, but it corresponds to that specific sample and shouldn't be read as a summary of its tournament as a whole.

New Zealand, on the other hand, arrives bruised. Over its last five matches it hasn't tasted victory: four losses and one draw. The picture gets even tougher when you look at its away form in the 2025 season: in three matches on the road it averaged 0.667 goals scored per game and conceded 4 per match, without keeping a single clean sheet. Ben Old, Elijah Just and Ben Waine stand out as the only scorers, with one goal apiece, and the stretch between the 31st and 45th minutes as the moment that team has scored the most on the road. These are numbers from a specific sample, but they paint the picture of a team that has struggled lately away from home.

The head to head record doesn't favor the hosts either: of the two matches played between these sides, New Zealand won one and the other ended in a draw, with a combined scoreline of 1-2 in favor of the Oceania side. It's a small sample, but it's all there is.

Probable Lineups

On the Chinese side, the projected lineup (with low reliability, according to our model) features familiar names up front: Wei Shihao and Zhang Yuning, both starters in five of the last six matches, would lead the attack, with Zhu Chenjie anchoring the defense as another fixture of the recent squad.

New Zealand, with a probable lineup of medium reliability, would keep a highly recognizable core: Tim Payne and Finn Surman, starters in the last six matches, would hold down the defense, Marko Stamenic and Elijah Just would repeat in midfield with the same consistency, and Chris Wood, a starter in five of the last six matches, would remain the attacking reference point.

What the Numbers Say Before Kickoff

Our model calculates expected goals of 1.28 for China and 0.70 for New Zealand, an estimated total of 1.97 goals for the match.

These figures make China the favorite, but not by an overwhelming margin: 49% still leaves plenty of room for other outcomes, and that 32% draw probability is no small detail. Keep in mind this is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a locked-in forecast.

With a China side riding the confidence of a high scoring start and a New Zealand team needing to snap its poor away run, the match in Chongqing promises to make clear which of the two trends carries more weight on the field.