China host Tajikistan with history on their side but a leaky defense

China host Tajikistan at Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium looking to shake off an uneasy run: over their last five matches they've picked up two losses, though they've also notched two wins and a draw in that same stretch. Tajikistan, on the other hand, arrives at this friendly carrying five straight losses across their entire recent sample, without a single point to show for it.

The hosts, led by Shao Jiayi, have gone 3 games played, 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses in friendlies this season, with 3 goals scored and 8 allowed. That gap says a lot, and it points to a defense that's been leaking more than it should in recent outings. Playing at home in International Friendlies during 2026, over a small sample of just 3 matches, China has averaged 1 goal scored and 2.67 conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in only 33% of those outings; their most productive scoring window in that stretch falls between the 46th and 60th minutes. Wang Ziming stands as their top scorer in that same sample, with 3 goals.

Tajikistan, for their part, have played just one friendly so far this season, and it ended in defeat: 0 wins in 1 match, with 0 goals scored and 1 allowed. Looking at their other trend sample, from International Friendlies in 2022 (combining home and away, over a single match), they averaged 0.667 goals scored and 2 conceded, with a clean sheet in 100% of that limited reference and their scoring window concentrated in the first 15 minutes. These numbers come from different contexts, but they paint the picture of a team that hasn't found any consistency.

The head-to-head record between the two sides is short but favors China: across 2 previous meetings, the hosts won one and the other ended in a draw, with no wins for Tajikistan. The combined scoreline in those games stands at 1 goal for China and none for their opponents.

Probable lineups

For this friendly, China's projected starting eleven (flagged as low confidence by the projection itself) would have Liu Dianzuo in goal, with a back line featuring Liu Yang, Jiang Guangtai, Wei Zhen and Gao Zhunyi. In midfield, the lineup points to Huang Jiahui, Wang Shangyuan, Chen Pu and Xie Wenneng, while up front the attacking duo would be Wei Shihao, a starter in all five of the most recent matches in the sample, and Wang Ziming, the name that shows up most often among the scorers in the home trends. No probable lineup is available for Tajikistan in the data for this match.

What to expect

With a Chinese defense that's been shipping goals in bunches over its last few friendlies, and a Tajikistan side that hasn't managed to pick up a point in several matches, the game in Chongqing shapes up as a chance for the hosts to try to rediscover the solidity they've been missing, while the visitors look to finally snap their losing streak away from home.