Chivas hosts Querétaro with the odds in its favor in the race for the top

Guadalajara sits second, just a point behind leader Toluca, and wants to make the most of home field at the Akron to keep within striking distance of the top. Standing in the way is a Querétaro side sitting fifth in the table, only four points back, in a matchup that promises more than just points: it is Chivas against Gallos Blancos in Liga MX, with both sides carrying real arguments to fight for the top.

The Rebaño have put together a record of five wins, three draws and a single loss so far this tournament, with 17 goals scored and 8 allowed across nine matches played. Over their last five games they have won three and drawn two without a single defeat, a run that backs up their second place standing. On top of that, at home in this season's Liga MX (a sample of four matches, distinct from their overall record) they are averaging 2.25 goals scored and just 0.99 allowed per game, with half of those matches ending in clean sheets and their most productive stretch coming between minutes 31 and 45.

Querétaro, for its part, has four wins, two draws and two losses in eight matches played, with 11 goals scored and 8 allowed. Over their last five outings they mixed two wins, two draws and a loss, a more uneven run of form than their upcoming opponent. On the road in this season's Liga MX, in a sample of four matches, they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and just 0.5 allowed, with half of those games kept scoreless against them and their best scoring stretch coming late, between minutes 76 and 90.

The recent head to head also favors Guadalajara: in eight meetings, the Tapatío side has won four, three ended in draws and Querétaro has won just once, with an aggregate of 12 goals for the home side against 7 for the visitors.

The probable lineups

On the home side, the projected eleven for Gabriel Milito keeps a core that has repeated in nearly every recent match: Raúl Rangel in goal, Diego Campillo and Luis Romo in defense, Omar Govea anchoring midfield and the attacking trio of Ricardo Marín, Roberto Alvarado and Santiago Sandoval, who happen to be the team's three top scorers at home this season.

For Querétaro, coached by Esteban González, the probable eleven repeats almost entirely the starters from the last six matches: Guillermo Allison in goal, a back four of Bayron Duarte, Daniel Parra, Lucas Abascia and Diego Reyes, and up top Alí Ávila alongside Santiago Homenchenko, both among the team's leading scorers on the road.

What the numbers say before kickoff

The model gives a clear edge to Guadalajara, with a 58% probability of victory compared to 15% for Querétaro, leaving 27% for the draw, not a small number given the competitive level of both squads. Expected goals (an in house estimate, not an official figure) sit at 1.71 for the home side against 0.77 for the visitors, a combined 2.48 that lines up with a 50% chance of more than 2.5 goals in the match and a 56% chance that both teams find the net. It is worth noting these figures are our model's projection and not a betting line.

With Toluca lurking above and Querétaro needing points to avoid slipping away from fifth place, the Akron hosts a match where the home team's edge is real, but not absolute: there is room for a surprise.