Cincinnati looks to snap out of it against a D.C. United side stuck in the MLS basement

TQL Stadium hosts an MLS matchup between two clubs that have gone several weeks without showing their best form. FC Cincinnati sits sixth in the East group with 31 points, while D.C. United is 11th with 25. Just six points separate the two sides in the standings, and it shows in how they arrive at this one.

The home side has posted a record of 8 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in 22 matches, with 49 goals scored and 51 allowed, a negative goal difference that stands out for a team sitting in the top half of the table. Over the last five matches, Cincinnati has managed just one win, two draws and two losses, an inconsistent stretch that contrasts with the attacking firepower the club shows at home: in the 2026 MLS season, at TQL Stadium alone, Cincinnati averages 2.82 goals scored per game across 11 matches, though it also concedes 1.90 per game and has kept a clean sheet in just 18% of those outings. Evander and Kevin Denkey are the names behind that production, with 13 and 11 goals respectively in that sample.

D.C. United, for its part, hasn't won in five matches, picking up three draws and two losses in that span. Its record on the season is 5 wins, 10 draws and 7 losses, with 28 goals scored and 36 allowed, numbers that explain why the club sits near the bottom of the table. On the road in the 2026 MLS season, over 11 matches, D.C. United averages just 1.18 goals scored per game and allows 1.28, with a 27% clean sheet rate. Tai Baribo, with 12 goals in that sample, is the club's main offensive threat.

What the head-to-head record shows

The two sides have met 8 times, with the edge going to Cincinnati: 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 D.C. United victories, with 12 goals for the home side and 11 for the visitors across that history. It's an even split on the scoreboard, but one that favors Cincinnati in the final results.

Probable lineups

Cincinnati's likely lineup, rated medium reliability, would have Roman Celentano in goal, a back line of Miles Robinson, Matt Miazga and Samuel Gidi, a midfield of Ender Echenique, Gerardo Valenzuela, Pavel Bucha and Obinna Nwobodo, and up top Evander, Kevin Denkey and Kenji Mboma Dem.

On the visiting side, also rated medium reliability, D.C. United would line up with Sean Johnson between the posts, a back line of Andre Dozzell, Keisuke Kurokawa, Lucas Bartlett, Silvan Hefti and Kimito Nono, a midfield of Brandon Servania, Peglow and Matti Peltola, and up front Louis Munteanu alongside Jackson Hopkins.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives a clear edge to Cincinnati, though it doesn't rule out a road upset entirely:

This is our own model's estimate, not a betting line, and it produces expected goals of 2.47 for Cincinnati and 1.29 for D.C. United, a combined total of 3.76 that fits a game with back-and-forth potential: the probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 50%, and the chance both teams find the net reaches 58%.

With a home side that attacks with persistence but also leaves itself exposed at the back, and a visiting team that hasn't won in a while but tends to be competitive in tight scorelines, TQL Stadium could produce a match that stays open until the final whistle.