Cologne stuns Hoffenheim with five-goal thriller to complete stunning comeback

Hoffenheim even had a penalty to put the game away, and they wasted it. That miss proved costly in the end: 1. FC Köln came from behind twice in the second half to win 3-2 at RheinEnergieSTADION, in a Bundesliga clash that was decided in the final twenty minutes.

Hoffenheim struck first. In the 26th minute, Adam Daghim curled a left-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Bambasé Conté off a free kick, to make it 0-1. Cologne had created more chances early on, with attempts from Saïd El Mala, Ragnar Ache and Tom Krauß, but went into halftime trailing.

The second half opened with an immediate response from the home side: just after the restart, in the 50th minute, El Mala leveled things with a right-footed strike from the center of the box to make it 1-1. Soon after came the moment that could have changed everything: in the 54th minute, Jahmai Simpson-Pusey brought down Conté in the box for a penalty, but Max Moerstedt, who had come on just minutes earlier, blasted his shot wide of the post and squandered the chance to put Hoffenheim in control.

The missed spot kick had no immediate consequences for Hoffenheim, who regained the lead in the 66th minute through a Ozan Kabak header, set up by a Vladimír Coufal corner delivery, making it 1-2. That's when Cologne's decisive response arrived: Thijs Dallinga, who had come on in the second half, popped up twice to turn the result around. First, in the 71st minute, with a left-footed strike into the top corner off a Linton Maina cross, making it 2-2. Then, in the 81st minute, with a low finish off another corner kick, sealing the final 3-2 scoreline.

The numbers behind the match

Hoffenheim controlled more of the ball and got forward more often down the flanks, but Cologne was sharper in the final third. Here are the key stats:

Based on our xG estimate calculated from the match's shots, Cologne generated 2.219 expected goals against Hoffenheim's 1.975, a razor-thin gap that reflects just how even the contest was despite the final three-two scoreline.

Our preview published ahead of the match projected a 33% win probability for Cologne, 26% for a draw and 41% for a Hoffenheim victory, with expected goals of 1.53 for the home side and 1.73 for Hoffenheim. The result ended up defying that forecast: the team given less chance of winning took all three points, and did so in a match that produced five goals total, well above the 3.26 combined goals we had projected for the fixture.

What the result means

Cologne moves to 3 points in the standings after one match played, with a win and no draws or losses, sitting near the top of the table. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, remain pointless after their opening match, a defeat made worse by a missed penalty that could have changed everything. The points gap between the two sides in the standings stands at 3, a fairly accurate reflection of what played out on the field: a back and forth match, ultimately decided by Cologne's bench, with Dallinga the outright protagonist in the closing stretch.