Colombia favored over Peru at Hard Rock Stadium as it looks to end rough patch

Hard Rock Stadium hosts this international friendly between Colombia and Peru, two national teams arriving in need of some good vibes before the year wraps up. There are no qualifying points on the line and no trophy at stake, but there is urgency to correct course with an eye on what's ahead.

Colombia has yet to win a friendly this season: two matches played, one draw and one loss, with a goal scored and two allowed. Looking at its last five outings, things look a bit better on paper: one win, three draws and one loss, though that most recent result was in fact a defeat. In a separate sample, looking only at its 2026 friendlies home and away (just two matches), Nestor Lorenzo's side is averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1 allowed per game, with no clean sheets, and tends to find the net within the first 15 minutes. Luis Suarez leads the way there with one goal.

Peru arrives in tougher shape. In its friendlies this season it has played three matches with no wins, one draw and two losses, allowing seven goals while scoring just two. The recent form doesn't help either: of the last five matches, only one ended in a win, there was one draw and three losses, including the most recent one. Looking at its 2026 friendlies (three matches, home and away), Mano Menezes's side is conceding an average of 2.33 goals per game while scoring 0.67, also without a clean sheet, with Jairo Velez and Gianluca Lapadula as its scorers in that stretch.

The head to head record between the two sides shows a fairly even picture with a slight edge for Colombia: of 8 meetings, Colombia won 3, there were 3 draws and Peru won 2, with Colombia scoring 9 goals to Peru's 7.

Likely Lineups

Colombia's probable lineup, projected from recent matches and with low reliability, would have Camilo Vargas in goal, a back line of Jhon Lucumi, Davinson Sanchez, Daniel Munoz and Johan Mojica, and an attacking group featuring Gustavo Puerta, Jefferson Lerma, Luis Diaz, Jhon Arias, Luis Suarez and James Rodriguez.

For Peru, also an estimate, the probable eleven has Pedro Gallese in goal, a back line of Marcos Lopez, Oliver Sonne, Renzo Garces, Miguel Araujo and Alfonso Barco, and up front Erick Noriega, Yoshimar Yotun, Wilder Cartagena, Jhonny Vidales and Jairo Velez.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives considerably more weight to Colombia as the host, though it's worth taking it with a grain of salt: it's not a closed case.

In expected goals, our in house estimate has Colombia at 1.74 and Peru at 0.53, for a combined total of 2.27. These figures come from an internal model built on the season's trends, not a betting line or a locked in forecast: the gap clearly favors the home side, but that 9% for the visitors and 25% for a draw are a reminder that in a friendly, with no standings pressure, anything can happen on the field.

With both national teams searching for a return to winning ways, Hard Rock Stadium will host a match where urgency outweighs the "friendly" label.