Columbus Crew Hosts Toronto FC With History and the Numbers in Their Favor

Columbus Crew and Toronto FC meet at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field in a direct midtable showdown in the Eastern Conference of MLS. Just one point separates the two sides in the standings: the Crew sit 11th with 35 points, while Toronto are 10th with 36. Nothing will be settled in dramatic fashion today, but it is a match that could shape the rest of the season for either club.

The home side arrives with the regular season essentially decided in the numbers: 30 games played, 10 wins, 5 draws and 15 losses, with 46 goals scored and 47 allowed. The recent snapshot, though, is more encouraging: over their last five matches, the Crew have picked up three wins, one draw and one loss. Toronto, for its part, shows a more balanced record over the season (8 wins, 12 draws and 10 losses in 30 appearances, with 46 goals scored and 55 allowed), though in their last five games they alternated between two losses, one draw and two wins, closing out with a victory.

It is worth noting that these recent form numbers are a small sample and do not replace the overall season record. For additional context, the Crew at home in MLS this season are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.14 allowed per match across 15 appearances, with a 27% clean sheet rate and their most productive stretch coming between the 31st and 45th minutes; Wessam Abou Ali, Brais Mendez and Taha Habroune stand out there, each with 5 goals. Toronto, on the road in that same 14 game sample, score 0.86 goals per match and allow 1.65, with a 29% clean sheet rate and their best stretch between the 76th and 90th minutes; Daniel Sallói leads that category with 8 goals, followed by Josh Sargent with 7.

What the History Says

The recent head to head record between the two clearly favors the Crew: of the 8 matches on record, they won 4, drew 3 and lost just 1, with a lopsided goal difference of 14 to 6 in their favor.

Probable Lineups

For the Crew, the projected lineup (with high confidence based on recent starting frequency) would have Patrick Schulte in goal; a back line of Sean Zawadzki, Malte Amundsen and Steven Moreira; a midfield of Taha Habroune, Anass Zaroury, Mohamed Farsi and Dylan Chambost; and up top, Santiago Rodriguez, Brais Mendez and Josef Martinez.

Toronto, with a lineup of medium confidence, would go with Luka Gavran between the posts; a defense made up of Matheus Pereira, Benjamin Kuscevic, Richie Laryea, Nicksoen Gomis and Zane Monlouis; a midfield of Niklas Dorsch, Theo Corbeanu and Jonathan Osorio; and in attack, Josh Sargent alongside Daniel Sallói.

What Do the Numbers Say Before Kickoff?

Our model gives a certain edge to the home side, though it is far from a foregone conclusion.

Expected goals (an in-house estimate, not an official stat) place the Crew at 1.75 and Toronto at 1.13, for a combined total of 2.89. That lines up with the calculated trends for the match: a 59% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 51% chance that both teams score. These numbers point to an open game, tilted slightly toward the home side, but with the visitors far from out of it.

With the standings so tight between the two sides and a head to head record that favors the Crew, the match at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field promises a fight from the opening whistle. Neither team can afford to give away points at this stage of the MLS season.