Como, red hot in fourth, hosts rock-bottom Venezia

Como arrives at the Giuseppe Sinigaglia with four wins in its last five matches and the tag of fourth place in Serie A. Across the pitch stands Venezia, dead last in the standings with just one win all season. On paper this is a clash of opposites, and the season's numbers back that up.

Cesc Fabregas's side has piled up 6 wins, 2 draws and just 1 loss in 9 matches played, scoring 17 goals and conceding 8. The lone recent blemish was a defeat, but Como bounced back with four straight wins to arrive at this fixture on a roll. Venezia, coached by Davide Nicola, shows a very different record: 1 win, no draws and 8 losses in the league, with 6 goals scored and 19 allowed. In its last five matches it won only once and lost the other four, a stretch that carries extra weight heading into a road trip against one of the league's top sides.

The table makes the contrast even sharper: Como sits fourth with 20 points, while Venezia props up the standings in 20th place with just 3 points. The gap between the two is 17 points.

What the season's trends say

At home in Serie A this season (sample of 3 matches), Como averages 1.32 goals scored and just 0.33 conceded per game, with a 67% clean sheet rate, and tends to find the net mostly between the 46th and 60th minutes. Tasos Douvikas leads that sample with 5 goals, followed by Nico Paz and Martin Baturina with 3 apiece. On the other side, Venezia on the road (4 matches) has a low scoring average, 0.74 goals for, and a very high defensive one, 2.25 against, without a single clean sheet in that sample. Its most productive window comes between the 61st and 75th minutes, with Antoine Hainaut and Akor Adams the names to watch with 2 goals each.

The head-to-head history isn't one-sided either: across 8 meetings, Como has won 3, there have been 3 draws and Venezia has taken 2, with Como scoring 11 goals to Venezia's 10. It's an even record that contrasts sharply with where both clubs stand right now.

Possible lineups

As an estimate drawn from recent matches and without official confirmation, Como could take the field with Jean Butez in goal; Marc Oliver Kempf, Jacobo Ramon, Alex Valle and Yan Couto across the back line; Lucas da Cunha, Maximo Perrone, Nico Paz, Maxence Caqueret and Luis Milla in midfield, and Tasos Douvikas leading the attack.

Venezia, in a projected lineup of medium reliability, would field Filip Stankovic between the posts; Matias Moreno, Juan Jesus and Redouane Halhal in defense; Kike Perez, Antoine Hainaut, Simon Sohm, Ridgeciano Haps and Toma Basic in midfield, with Akor Adams and John Yeboah up front.

What the model says

Our in-house estimate, which is not a betting line but a reading based on the season's trends, makes Como the heavy favorite.

Expected goals back up that reading: 2.34 for Como against 0.74 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.08. The model also puts the probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match at 42% and the chance of both teams scoring at 33%, figures that point to a game with more than one goal but not necessarily one where Venezia finds the net.

With Como looking to pile pressure on the top of the table and Venezia desperate for points on the road, the match at the Giuseppe Sinigaglia has all the makings of a test for whether the gap on paper shows up on the scoreboard.