Como rout Fiorentina 1-3 as Nico Paz scores twice and sets up another

It took Como just eight minutes to put the game all but out of reach at the Artemio Franchi. Mattia Liberali opened the scoring in the 31st minute with a low shot by the post, and four minutes later Nico Paz nodded a header into the top corner to make it 0-2. Fiorentina had barely caught their breath when Marin Pongracic pulled one back before halftime, but it wasn't enough: Como struck again in the second half and walked away with all three points, winning 1-3.

The home side came out determined and had early chances of their own: Alieu Njie and Nicolo Fagioli tested Como's goalkeeper in the first ten minutes, and Mateo Pellegrino also forced a save. But Cesc Fabregas's side stayed patient and broke through just past the half-hour mark. In the 31st minute, Maxence Caqueret set up Liberali for the opener, and in the 35th it was Alex Valle who whipped in the cross that Nico Paz turned into a header for 0-2.

Fiorentina responded before the break. A corner kick fell to Pongracic, who finished with his left foot to make it 1-2 in the 41st minute and add some tension heading into halftime. The momentum swing seemed complete right after the restart, when Pongracic struck again, but the goal was ruled out by VAR following a review in the 48th minute, leaving the score frozen at 1-2.

That decision loomed large, because just seven minutes later Como struck again. On a quick break, Nico Paz set up Tasos Douvikas, who finished with his right foot from the center of the box to make it 1-3 in the 55th minute, a goal born out of a counterattack that put the result out of reach. Fiorentina tried to find a way back late on, with Njie hitting the post with a header and several Fagioli shots missing the target, but the scoreline held.

What the numbers say

The game was closer on the balance of play than the final score suggests. Como controlled a bit more possession and were sharper with the ball, but Fiorentina generated plenty of volume through their corners and shots from outside the box.

According to our expected goals estimate calculated from the match's shots, Fiorentina generated 2.502 xG compared to Como's 2.117, a gap that suggests the home side had enough offensive quality to take more from the game, though Como's clinical finishing ended up being decisive.

The result also runs counter to what we'd projected before kickoff: our model gave Como a 47% chance of winning, a 28% chance of a draw and just 25% to Fiorentina, with expected goals of 1.61 for the visitors and 1.12 for the home side. The final score, with three goals for Como and one for Fiorentina, ended up going the way the favorites were projected to, though with a bigger margin than expected.

What it means in the standings

The win lifts Como into fourth place with 14 points, built on four wins, two draws and one loss in seven matches played. Fiorentina, meanwhile, remain stuck near the bottom, sitting 19th with just 4 points after one win, one draw and five losses in their seven outings. The 10-point gap between the two sides reflects the contrasting moments both clubs are going through as the Serie A season moves forward.