Cremonese and Sampdoria look to right the ship in the Coppa Italia with no clear favorite

The Coppa Italia brings Cremonese and Sampdoria face to face at the Druso stadium, a clash between two clubs looking to right the ship as they arrive with more questions than answers. This is no ordinary fixture: both sides need a lift to snap the inconsistency that has followed them through their recent outings.

How both teams arrive

Cremonese comes in with a mixed bag of a present: in its last five matches the club won two and lost three, including a defeat in its most recent outing. The curious part is its 100% clean sheet rate, a defensive solidity that clashes with the poor results, suggesting tight matches decided by fine margins. On top of that, the home side tends to strike early, with its most productive attacking stretch coming in the first 15 minutes.

Sampdoria, for its part, has also been up and down in recent form: two wins, one draw and two losses in its last five matches, with a defeat in its most recent game. Unlike its rival, it has not managed to keep a clean sheet in that stretch (0% clean sheets), reflecting a marked defensive fragility. Going forward, its best window comes between the 31st and 45th minutes. Liam Henderson stands out as its recent top scorer, though with just one goal on the board.

Head to head

The recent head to head record leans slightly in Cremonese's favor: of six meetings, the Lombardy side won two, three ended in draws and Sampdoria has won just once. In terms of goals, Cremonese has scored 7 and Sampdoria 6, a razor thin margin that confirms just how even this rivalry has been historically.

Possible lineups

As a probable lineup with medium reliability, Cremonese could field Emil Audero in goal, with Sebastiano Luperto, Filippo Terracciano, Matteo Bianchetti and Federico Baschirotto across the back line. In midfield, Giuseppe Pezzella, Alberto Grassi, Youssef Maleh and Romano Floriani Mussolini could feature, while up top the attacking duo would be formed by Federico Bonazzoli and Jamie Vardy.

On Sampdoria's side, also as an estimate, Tommaso Martinelli would guard the goal, with Mattia Viti, Alessandro Di Pardo and Simone Giordano in defense. The midfield would be rounded out by Oliver Abildgaard, Liam Henderson, Salvatore Esposito, Antonín Barák and Francesco Conti, leaving the attack in the hands of Tjas Begic and Matteo Brunori.

Match probabilities

Our model projects an even matchup, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

The numbers point to a game with no clear favorite: the gap between Cremonese's 32% and Sampdoria's 37% is minimal, and the 31% probability of a draw reinforces the sense of balance. The expected goals figures, 1.17 for the home side and 1.25 for the visitors, are EnPelotas' own estimate based on this season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

Looking ahead to the match

With a Cremonese side that defends solidly but does not always turn that firmness into wins, and a Sampdoria that attacks with danger but struggles at the back, the clash at the Druso promises to be decided by fine margins. The recent head to head, extremely even, offers no clear hints, and the calculated probabilities confirm that any result is plausible in this Coppa Italia meeting.