Cruz Azul hosts Santos Laguna looking to climb toward mid-table in Liga MX

Cruz Azul comes in ninth, sorry, tenth with 9 points and a goal difference of zero, but they're up against a Santos Laguna side sitting at the bottom of the table with just 1 point from six matches. That contrast, more than anything else, sums up what's at stake this weekend at Estadio Banorte in Liga MX.

The hosts aren't at their best right now: over their last five matches they've picked up two wins and three losses, including a recent stretch of three straight defeats before finally getting back to winning ways. In the tournament, Cruz Azul has gone 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, scoring 11 goals and conceding 11 across six matches. As the home side in this 2026 Liga MX season, over a sample of three matches, they average 1.34 goals scored per game and concede 2, without a single clean sheet, and their most productive scoring window has come between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Santos Laguna, meanwhile, is going through a rough patch. Its record in the tournament stands at 0 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses, with just 4 goals scored against 11 conceded. Over its last five matches it has one win, one draw and three losses. As the away side this season, over three matches, it also averages 1.34 goals scored but concedes 3 per game, with no clean sheets, and tends to score early, between the 0th and 15th minutes.

The gap between the two sides in the standings is 8 points, already a clear reflection of how differently their campaigns have gone so far.

What the head-to-head says

The history between these two clubs includes 8 matches, with 5 wins for Cruz Azul, 1 draw and 2 wins for Santos Laguna. In terms of goals, Cruz Azul has scored 13 and Santos Laguna 14, a number that shows that despite the home side's dominance in results, these matchups haven't been low scoring affairs.

Likely lineups

With medium confidence, Cruz Azul is projected to start Kevin Mier in goal; a back line of Omar Campos, Jesus Orozco, Willer Ditta and Gonzalo Piovi; a midfield of Carlos Rodriguez, Jose Paradela, Jeremy Marquez, Agustin Palavecino and Erik Lira; and Nicolas Ibanez leading the attack.

Santos Laguna, also a projected lineup, would field Carlos Acevedo in goal; Felipe Sanchez, Franco Pardo, Efrain Orona and Emmanuel Echeverria on defense; Fran Villalba, Mauricio Cuevas, Aldo Lopez and Diego Gonzalez in midfield; with Eduardo Aguirre and Ezequiel Bullaude up top.

What the numbers say

Our model sees a clear favorite in this one, though it doesn't fully rule out an upset:

This is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. With 75% favoring Cruz Azul, the model leaves little room for a draw (17%) or an away win (8%). On top of that, the probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match sits at 83%, while the chance of both teams scoring drops to 44%, a number that fits a home side that attacks well and a visiting team that struggles defensively but doesn't always find the net.

With those numbers on the table, Cruz Azul will look to use home-field advantage to move closer to mid-table, while Santos Laguna needs to snap a slide that has left it at the bottom of the standings.