Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan Look for Their First Europa League Points at Selhurst Park

Crystal Palace opens its Europa League league phase campaign at Selhurst Park against a Lech Poznan side that has yet to pick up a single point in the competition. Neither club has any points on the board: both show up with zero matches played in the standings, so this is, quite literally, a clean slate for both sides.

The English side's recent form isn't exactly reassuring: over their last five matches they've gone two wins and three losses, with the most recent outing ending in defeat. Lech Poznan, on the other hand, arrives a bit steadier: their last five fixtures produced three wins, one draw and one loss, though they too closed out that stretch with a slip.

One figure worth taking with a grain of salt comes from Crystal Palace's own materials: in the 2026 English League Cup, home and away combined, they kept a clean sheet in 100% of a single match played, with Jørgen Strand Larsen and Daichi Kamada as their scorers in that sample. That's a stat from a different competition and a single game, so it says nothing about how they'll defend today in the Europa League. Something similar applies to Lech Poznan: their away numbers in the Europa League on record date back to the 2020 season, across just three matches, with an average of 0.333 goals scored and 2.333 conceded per game, zero clean sheets, and Mikael Ishak as their top scorer from that era. These are figures from another time and a tiny sample, not a forecast of what will happen at Selhurst Park.

The probable lineups

On the home side, the projected XI (flagged as low confidence by the model itself) has Dean Henderson in goal, a back line of Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot and Axel Disasi, and a midfield featuring Tyrick Mitchell, Adam Wharton, Quinten Timber and Anan Khalaili. Up top, the attacking trio is Daichi Kamada, Yeremy Pino and Jørgen Strand Larsen.

Lech Poznan, with a medium confidence projected lineup, would field Mateusz Lis in goal, a back line of Wojciech Monka, Michal Gurgul, Mateusz Skrzypczak and Joel Pereira, and a crowded midfield block featuring Allahyar Sayyadmanesh, Pablo Rodriguez, Radoslaw Murawski, Patrik Walemark, Gustav Berggren and Luis Palma.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model has Crystal Palace as the favorite, though not by an overwhelming margin: the gap to both the draw and the away win isn't huge.

With a combined expected goals total of 2.99, the model points to a game with chances at both ends rather than a tight, low-scoring affair. These figures come from an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a preset result.

With both teams starting from zero in the standings, today's match at Selhurst Park is mainly about getting off on the right foot. Crystal Palace comes in with a bit more favoritism on paper, but the margin separating the three outcomes doesn't invite taking anything for granted before the ball even rolls.